Slightly Lower 2022 Red Meat Poultry Production Forecast

The 2022 forecast for total US red meat and poultry production from the USDA’s World Outlook Board was lowered slightly from last month Wednesday, as higher forecast beef production was thought to be more than offset by lower pork, broiler and turkey production.

The new estimates came from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

 

BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED

 

The 2022 beef production forecast was raised from January’s report as a larger number of placements was expected during the first half are marketed in the latter half of the year, the report said.  The new annual production estimate was 27.375 million pounds, up 210,000, or 0.77%, from 27.165 million in the January report.

However, the expected increase in 2022 fed cattle slaughter was partly offset by lower non-fed cattle slaughter.

The 2021 production figure was trimmed from the January report to 27.937 million pounds from the 27.950 million reported in January because of revised December data.

The 2022 beef import forecast was raised 105,000 pounds, or 3.12%, to 3.370 million pounds from 3.265 million a month ago on strong demand for processing beef; the export forecast was left unchanged at 3.270 million pounds.

The 2021 beef import total was revised to 3.348 million pounds from 3.355 million a month earlier.  The export total was revised to 3.447 million pounds from 3.455 million.

 

PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED

 

The 2022 pork production estimate was lowered 135,000 pounds, or 0.49%, to 27.380 million pounds from the 27.515 million reported in January on a slower pace of slaughter, the report said.

The 2021 production estimate was reduced 20,000 pounds, or 0.07%, to 27.673 million pounds from the 27.693 million reported in the January report on revised December data.

Pork exports for 2022 were reduced 190,000 pounds, or 2.79%, to 6.810 million pounds from 7.000 million last month on continued weakness in demand from China and increased competition in other markets.  Imports were placed at 1.310 million pounds, compared with 1.300 million a month ago.

2021 exports were revised to 7.030 million pounds from 7.088 million a month ago, and imports declined to 1.180 million from 1.190 in January.

 

POULTRY PRODUCTION ESTIMATE REDUCED

 

Broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2022 were reduced from January’s report on current hatchery data and higher expected feed costs, the report said.

Broiler production for this year was put at 45.485 million pounds, down from the January estimate of 45.600 million.  2021 production was pegged at 44.889 million pounds, up from January’s estimate of 44.880 million.

 

CATTLE, BEEF RECAP

 

The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $139.02 to $141.53 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $136.90 to $138.57.  FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $216.43 to $220.45 per cwt, versus $214.07 to $217.14.

The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $1.67 per cwt at $275.79, while select was off $1.79 at $272.05.  The choice/select spread widened to $3.74 from $3.62 with 112 loads of fabricated product and 21 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA reported that basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were steady at $1.40 to $1.50 a bushel over the Mar futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.20 over Mar, which settled at $6.46 3/4 a bushel, up $0.14 1/2.

Ten steer contracts were retendered for delivery against Feb at one on Wednesday.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $162.04 per cwt up $0.61.  This compares with Wednesday’s Mar contract settlement of $168.27 per cwt, up $1.40.