Southern Plains feeder and fed cattle prices were expected to continue rising through the next two years as supplies become increasingly scarce, according to forecasts by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver.
In its latest estimates made last week, a graph of annual average prices for 500- to 600-pound steer calves, 700- to 800-pound feeder steers and fed steers showed actual gains through 2023, expected annual prices for 2024 and estimates for 2025 and 2026.
ANNUAL PRICES REACHING
In 2022, annual prices for calves and feeder cattle eclipsed their previous annual peaks set in 2018. The annual top for fed cattle wasn’t passed until 2023.
The new annual high for steer calves from 2024 was estimated at $307 per cwt, up $47.54, or 18.3%, from the previous high of $259.46 set in 2023. The new annual peak for feeder steers last year was tentatively placed at $257 per cwt, up $35.12, or 15.8%, from 2023’s $221.88, while the 2024 estimated top was $187, up $10.86, or 6.17%, from $176.14.
For 2025, the steer calf annual average price was estimated by the LMIC at $310 per cwt, up $3.00, or 0.98%, from 2024’s estimate of $307, while the average annual price for Southern Plains feeder steers was put at $263, up $6.00, or 2.33%, from 2024’s $257, and the average annual price for fed steers was estimated at $191, up $4.00, or 2.14%, from 2024’s $187.
2026 PRICE PROJECTIONS
Projecting annual averages two years out is really an educated guess, but the LMIC seemed to be game.
For 2026, the average annual price for steer calves was put at $312.50 per cwt, up $2.50, or 0.81%, from 2025’s estimate of $310, while the 2026 annual price for feeder steers was put at $270.50 per cwt, up $7.50, or 2.85%, from $263 in 2025, and at $194 for fed steers, up $3.00, or 1.57%, from $191 in 2025.
BEEF COW INVENTORY LOW
The gains in calf, feeder cattle and fed cattle prices may be linked strongly to tight supplies. Beef cow inventories a year ago were lower, at 28.516 million head, than they were in 2014, at 28.956 million.
That followed eight straight years of rising beef cow slaughter, which peaked in 2022 at 3.952 million head. Annual beef cow slaughter declined last year, but some analysts have said that with little abatement in the US drought conditions, beef cow slaughter may not have declined again last year.
Even if it did dip again, a market analyst said, there always is a lag between a drop in cow slaughter and fed cattle supply, so cattle prices likely will be supported for the next two years.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $197.16 per cwt to $200.95, compared with last week’s range of $191.11 to $197.07 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $304.49 per cwt to $312.78, compared with $301.97 to $310.00.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $2.82 per cwt at $328.61 while select was up $1.46 at $306.89. The choice/select spread widened to $21.72 from $20.36 with 147 loads of fabricated product and 34 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $338.51 per cwt, and 50% beef was $102.14.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.25 to $1.38 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.54, down $0.04.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $272.86 per cwt, up $0.57. This compares with Wednesday’s Jan contract settlement of $265.57, down $2.82.