One of the reasons the beef trade market is so interesting is that the US imports and exports beef, said David Anderson, agricultural economist at Texas A&M University, in a Livestock Marketing Information Publication called In The Cattle Markets.
And, it’s been about seven weeks since US tariffs and retaliatory tariffs were announced, affecting beef, Anderson said. The mix of products varies by country, including muscle cuts, trimmings, variety meats and hides.
CHINA IN FOCUS
Even though tariff levels continue to fluctuate, enough time has passed to begin to see some effects on beef exports to one market in particular – China, he said.
Weekly fresh and frozen beef muscle cut export data is available through the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, Anderson said. The data is reported for a large number of countries and can be aggregated to regions.
US exports to China averaged 2.42 tonnes a week during the first quarter of 2025, he said. Following the announcements of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs, exports dropped dramatically to only 17 tonnes for the week of May 8.
That was the smallest weekly export total since the week of April 11, 2019, when 0 tonnes were exported, Anderson said.
OTHER COUNTRIES
Often in trade, the closing of one market creates new, larger exports to other countries, he said. Beef exports to Japan and South Korea over the last six weeks were larger than during the first quarter of the year.
Some more detailed information might be necessary to determine if the increase is normal week-to-week variation, or some redirecting of shipments following the tariff announcement, or finding new sales, Anderson said.
Of perhaps more interest, export data to Hong Kong is still broken out from mainland China exports, he said. Exports to Hong Kong averaged 369 tonnes a week during the first quarter of the year and 600 tonnes per week since early April.
MORE CONTEXT
For a little added context, fresh and frozen beef muscle cut exports to China are a relatively new phenomenon, Anderson said. Exports did not exceed 1,000 tonnes in a week until November 2019. But exports rapidly grew since then to become the US’s third-largest beef export market.
As exports to mainland China grew, they largely supplanted those to Hong Kong, he said. Exports to China in 2024 accounted for an equivalent of about 1.7% of US beef production.
There likely will likely be more volatility in trade as negotiations on tariffs move forward, Anderson said. These individual country markets will be interesting to monitor in the future.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $220.00 per cwt to $227.20, compared with last week’s range of $219.93 to $230.32 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $348.05 per cwt to $355.53, compared with $344.06 to $364.74.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $3.57 per cwt at $365.42 while select was up $0.91 at $351.74. The choice/select spread widened to $13.68 from $11.02 with 116 loads of fabricated product and 22 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $381.70 per cwt, and 50% beef was $124.75.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.15 to $1.25 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.51, down $0.08 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $295.84 per cwt, down $0.25. This compares with Wednesday’s Aug contract settlement of $295.62, down $2.52.