All the news agencies have mentioned it — US agriculture is especially vulnerable to fluctuations in trade with Mexico, Canada and China.
Ty Kreitman, economist at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, said in a Bank article that several major commodities and staple consumer food products rely heavily on trade to and from those countries. Major changes to these key trade relationships could lead to reduced farm-sector revenues and higher food prices for consumers.
TRADE IMPORTANT
According to the USDA, the US exported roughly $175 billion in agricultural products in 2024 and imported $215 billion, Kreitman said.
US agricultural trade is particularly concentrated among Mexico, Canada and China, Kreitman said. These nations were the destination for about 50% of the total value of US agricultural exports in 2024.
Mexico and Canada also are important sources of agricultural products, accounting for more than 40% of all US agricultural imports, he said. These two nations were by far the largest individual import partners, with China contributing a much smaller portion.
Additionally, Canada also was a major supplier of essential fertilizers used in crop production, Kreitman said, quoting a 2025 study.
CHINA BIG FOR SOYBEANS
Despite its relatively low importance as an exporter of agricultural products to the US, China is a particularly important destination for soybeans and other bulk farm commodities that rely heavily on export markets, he said. Twenty percent of US soybean production is exported to China.
In addition to soybeans, roughly 55% of sorghum production, 20% of cotton production and 8% of US tree nut production (including 18% of pistachios) are exported to China, Kreitman said.
China’s relative importance as a destination for US agricultural products made the sector more vulnerable during past trade disputes, he said. In 2018, China responded to US tariffs by implementing a 25% tariff on US soybeans, which led to an immediate and sharp reduction in US soybean exports and prices and a reshuffling of global exports.
The disruption also likely reduced the longer-term competitiveness of US exports in world markets by expanding soybean production and exports in other countries, according to a study cited by Kreitman.
In addition to China, Mexico and Canada are important destinations for several major farm commodities that rely more moderately on exports, he said. Five to seven percent of US corn, dairy, poultry and pork production is exported to Mexico.
Moreover, about 5% of US fruit, vegetable and tree nut production is exported to Canada, Kreitman said. Higher Mexican and Canadian tariffs on these products likely would reduce demand and lead to lower prices.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $208.00 per cwt to $212.43, compared with last week’s range of $210.15 to $214.47 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $328.93 per cwt to $333.20, compared with $329.75 to $339.08.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $1.40 per cwt at $338.10 while select was up $2.76 at $322.06. The choice/select spread narrowed to $16.04 from $20.20 with 113 loads of fabricated product and 31 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $380.46 per cwt, and 50% beef was $119.95.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.32 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.69, up $0.04 1/2.
No live cattle were tendered for delivery Tuesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $290.53 per cwt, up $0.53. This compares with Tuesday’s Apr contract settlement of $280.42, up $2.60.