All cattle and calves in the US as of Jan. 1 totaled 87.157 million head, 1.684 million, or 1.90%, fewer than the 88.841 million on Jan. 1, 2023, the USDA said Wednesday in its semi-annual Cattle (Inventory) report.
Totals listed were not a big surprise to cattle owners, traders and analysts. Anecdotal reports indicated that a desire to begin growing the herd again after years of drawdown were reversed by a combination of still recovering pastures and the high sale value of heifers and cows.
DOWNWARD REVISIONS
There were several downward revisions to previous reports.
Based on an extensive review, July 1, 2022, all cattle and calves decreased by 0.3%. Jan. 1, 2023, all cattle and calves decreased by 0.5% and the 2022 calf crop decreased by 0.1%. July 1, 2023, all cattle and calves decreased by 0.5% and the 2023 calf crop decreased by 0.6%.
HERD NUMBERS DECLINE
All cows and heifers that have calved, at 37.580 million head, were 757,000, or 1.97%, fewer than the 38.337 million head on Jan. 1, 2023. Beef cows, at 28.223 million head, were down 715,000, or 2.47%, from 28.938 million a year ago.
All heifers 500 pounds and over totaled 18.483 million head, 278,000, or 1.48%, fewer than the 18.761 million head last year. Beef replacement heifers, at 4.858 million head, were down 72,000, or 1.46%, from 4.930 million a year ago. Beef breed heifers expected to calve during 2024 totaled 3.052 million head, down 58,000, or 1.86%, from 3.110 million.
Milk replacement heifers, at 4.059 million head, were down slightly from 4.074 million the previous year. Other heifers, at 9.566 million head, were 192,000, or 1.97%, fewer than 9.758 million a year earlier.
Steers weighing 500 pounds or more totaled 15.789 million head, down 268,000, or 1.67%, from 16.057 million last year.
Calves weighing less than 500 pounds totaled 13.285 million head were down 373,000, or 2.73%, from 13.658 million last year.
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market for all feedlots totaled 14.423 million head, up 227,000, or 1.60%, from 14.196 million a year ago. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more accounted for 82.7% of the total, up slightly.
The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots), at 24.2 million head, was down 4% from Jan. 1, 2023.
The 2023 calf crop was estimated at 33.6 million head, down 2% from 2022. Calves born during the first half of 2023 were estimated at 24.7 million head, down 2% from the first half of 2022. Calves born during the second half of 2023 were estimated at 8.89 million head, 26% of the total 2023 crop.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $173.14 per cwt to $177.66, compared with last week’s range of $171.36 to $176.16 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $272.94 per cwt to $275.62, compared with $270.35 to $278.11.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $1.53 per cwt at $294.54 while select was down $2.88 at $284.17. The choice/select spread widened to $10.37 from $9.02 with 86 loads of fabricated product and 27 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.35 to $1.49 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.48 1/4 a bushel, up $0.00 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $236.32 per cwt, up $0.04. This compares with Wednesday’s Mar contract settlement of $240.15, down $1.17.