OK. It’s official. The US cattle herd continues to shrink. The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service said so Friday.
The USDA’s semi-annual Cattle (Inventory) report was released Friday along with the monthly Cattle on Feed report, which stole the limelight from the Cattle report because few, if any, in the cattle industry thought there would be an increase in US cattle numbers.
Market analysts were not surprised by the inventory report, saying continued drought in major pasturing areas of the country forced more herd reductions.
HERD DECLINE ALL BEEF BREEDS
All cattle and calves in the US on July 1 totaled 95.9 million head, down 2.7 million, or 2.74%, from the 98.6 million a year earlier. All of this was in beef breeds as dairy numbers were unchanged from 2022.
Cows and heifers that have calved totaled 38.8 million head, down 800,000, or 2.02%, from 39.6 million a year earlier. Of this, 29.4 million head were beef breeds, down 800,000, or 2.65%, from 30.2 million a year earlier, and 9.4 million were dairy breeds, unchanged from July 1, 2022.
HEIFER STOCKS DOWN
One of the major complaints against the mid-year inventory report is that heifer destinies can shift in the last six months of the year more easily than those on hand for the Jan. 1 annual inventory report. Nothing can be done about this since the USDA’s intention is only to take an inventory of the industry at a given moment in time.
Realizing this, the report said the total number of heifers weighing more than 500 pounds on July 1 totaled 15.0 million head, down 600,000, or 3.85%, from 15.6 million a year earlier.
Of that, those designated as beef cow replacements came to 4.05 million head, down 100,000, or 2.41%, from 4.15 million a year earlier.
Heifers ear marked for dairy replacements totaled 3.65 million head, down 100,000, or 2.67%, from 3.75 million a year earlier.
Other heifers weighing more than 500 pounds totaled 7.3 million head, down 400,000, or 5.19% from 7.7 million in 2022.
STEER NUMBERS DOWN
Even steer numbers were reported lower with steers weighing more than 500 pounds listed at 13.9 million head, down 500,000, or 3.47%, from 14.4 million a year earlier.
Bulls weighing 500 pounds or more, which more than likely will replace aging bulls in the breeding herd, totaled 1.9 million head, down 100,000, or 5.0%, from 2.0 million a year earlier.
Calves weighing less than 500 pounds on July 1 came to 26.3 million head, down 700,000, or 2.59%, from 27.0 million a year earlier.
The estimated calf crop this year was reported at 33.8 million head, down 660,000, or 1.92%, from 34.46 million last year.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $178.00 per cwt to $188.83, compared with the previous week’s range of $178.00 to $186.59 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $280.35 per cwt to $288.43, compared with $280.56 to $287.07.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $0.18 per cwt at $302.74 while select was up $2.02 at $276.73. The choice/select spread narrowed to $26.01 from $27.85 with 74 loads of fabricated product and 30 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.90 to $2.05 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $5.27 a bushel, down $0.10 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $238.96 per cwt, up $1.13. This compares with Friday’s Aug contract settlement of $245.92 per cwt, up $0.82.