Wet weather has been a welcome relief for many areas of the country over the last few weeks, but the drought isn’t over, wrote Will Secor, Extension livestock economist at the University of Georgia, in a letter for the Livestock Marketing Information Center.
“In particular, rains in late October and early November alleviated drought or the severity of the drought for many areas of the Southern Plains and Southeast,” Secor said. However, significant portions of the US remain in drought.
HALF OF PASTURES IN POOR CONDITION
As of the end of October, the last report for the year, the USDA found that 51% of US pasture and range conditions were poor or very poor, he said. This compares with last year’s closing figure of 37% and the five-year average’s 36%.
The only region with pasture and range conditions better than last year was the Northeast, Secor said.
Conditions at the start of the reporting year in May were solid for much of the country, he said. One-quarter of pasture and range areas were in poor or very poor condition in the first week of reporting for the US.
That compares with 37% in 2023 and a five-year average of around 30%, Secor said. Additionally, important areas in the Midwest, Plains and West had pasture and range conditions better than last year and the five-year average.
CONDITIONS GET WORSE
Conditions remained better or in-line with last year or the five-year average for the country until the beginning of the fall, he said. However, earlier trends in certain regions gave some warning signs.
Conditions in the Northern Plains and West started departing from last year’s figures in mid- to late summer, Secor said. Conditions in the Southeast deteriorated rapidly in mid-summer.
By September, around 40% of pasture and range conditions were rated as poor or very poor, he said. These slid further through the fall to reach their final number of 51% at the end of October.
HERD REBUILDING IN DOUBT
Poor forage conditions add another angle to the herd rebuilding story, Secor said. Producer margins are much higher than just a few years ago, but difficult financial conditions persist, such as high input costs, and uncertain macroeconomic factors, such as high interest rates, make herd rebuilding more expensive.
Industry data suggested that producers were not rebuilding the herd at this time, he said. Poor pasture and range conditions add to the list of factors that limit rebuilding.
Poor conditions limit producers’ ability to expand even if other factors prove to be more favorable now or in the near future, Secor said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $186.86 per cwt to $188.70, compared with the previous week’s range of $185.00 to $190.15 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $290.89 per cwt to $298.91, compared with $290.32 to $295.19.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $0.74 per cwt at $310.52 while select was unchanged at $274.30. The choice/select spread narrowed to $36.22 from $36.96 with 44 loads of fabricated product and 13 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $325.39 per cwt, and 50% beef was $69.52.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.35 to $1.54 a bushel over the Dec corn contract and unchanged in Kansas at $0.25 over Dec, which settled at $4.23 a bushel, up $0.07 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $254.32 per cwt, down $0.88. This compares with Friday’s Jan contract settlement of $259.47, up $0.70.