As late as last week, 2022 US feed grain production was expected by the USDA to be slightly higher than last month’s estimate, reflecting higher planted acreage for corn in the June 30 Acreage report, according to the USDA’s July Feed Outlook report.
US corn production was raised 45 million bushels on expectations of increased harvested acreage. The yield estimate remained unchanged, leading to corn production totaling 14.505 billion bushels.
Estimated corn usage fell by 25 million bushels for the 2021/22 crop year on lower feed and residual use, because of adjustments from the June 1 stock estimates. Corn ending stocks for 2021/22 increased 25 million bushels to 1,510 million.
Estimated corn usage in the 2022/23 marketing year remained unchanged, the report said.
Barley, oats and sorghum harvested acreage decreased for 2022, which lowered feed grain production estimates, the USDA said. Lower barley ending stocks for 2021/22 decreased supply for the new crop year and dropped 2022/23 ending stocks by 24 million bushels, when combined with slightly lower 2022 yield projections.
Large sorghum stocks pushed 2021/22 ending stocks higher and increased supply for 2022/23, the report said. Feed grain ending stocks for 2021/22 increased, and, combined with larger corn acreage estimates, offset lower acreage in the other feed grains to increase feed grain supply marginally in 2022/23 from last month.
Foreign coarse grain supplies (corn and barley) for 2022/23 were projected lower this month, while the domestic use estimate was reduced even more, contributing to a 2.2-million-ton rise in projected global ending stocks, the USDA said. Projected US corn exports were left unchanged.
DOMESTIC OUTLOOK
Total corn consumption for the third quarter of the 2021/22 marketing year was estimated at 3.410 billion bushels, leaving 4.346 billion, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s June 30 Grain Stocks report.
Corn stocks in all positions were up 6%, the on-farm component of corn stocks was up 22%, and commercially held stocks were down 6% from the same period in the 2020/21 marketing year, the USDA said.
Because of the third-quarter pace of use, estimated corn use for marketing year 2021/22 was down 25 million bushels, on projected lower feed and residual use, the feed report said.
US corn exports for 2021/22 were estimated at 2.450 billion bushels—unchanged from the June estimate, the USDA said. Despite early July sales cancellations and weakness in export inspections, the export pace through this point in the marketing year supports the current forecast.
The lower corn use estimate led to 2021/22 ending stocks estimated to be 25 million bushels higher at 1.510 billion bushels.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $140.73 to $142.00 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $136.51 to $149.83. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $218.08 to $218.81 per cwt, versus $217.59 to $224.24.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $1.64 per cwt at $270.55, while select was up $0.87 at $242.66. The choice/select spread widened to $27.89 from $27.12 with 49 loads of fabricated product and 18 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were down $0.05 at $2.7 to $2.80 a bushel over the Sep futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at $0.10 under Sep, which settled at $6.12 1/4, up $0.08.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $172.67 per cwt up $0.05. This compares with Monday’s Aug contract settlement of $176.67, up $0.32.