The USDA said in its monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook Friday that 2025 cattle prices were expected to be modestly higher than the record set in 2025.
Further tightening of young cattle supplies available for placement in feedlots in 2025 and into early 2026 was expected to bolster prices.
FED STEER PRICES SEEN RISING
The USDA forecast for fed steer prices in the five-area marketing region was $222.75 per cwt, a year-over-year increase of 4%. The 2026 forecast for feeder steers weighing 750 to 800 pounds at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards was $306.25 per cwt, an increase of 3% from 2025.
Lastly, 2025 cull cow prices were forecast at $145.00 per cwt, a year-over-year increase of 5%. The increase was based on the slower pace of cow slaughter this year and the assumption that relatively higher returns for beef and dairy cattle producers would spur retention of breeding animals.
APRIL PRICES UP FROM 2024
The April average price for fed steers in the five-area marketing region was $213.80 per cwt, about $30 more than last year. In the first week of May, prices averaged $220.97 per cwt, more than $35 more than the same week last year.
Based on recent price data and feedlots slowing the pace of marketings, the 2025 price forecast was raised $9 from last month, with the annual price projected at $214.51 per cwt, 15% more than in 2024.
US feeder calf demand has shown significant strength this spring and likely will continue to do so without Mexican feeder calves in the market. In April, the weighted-average price for 750- to 800-pound feeder steers at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards was recorded at $298.22 per cwt, about $44 more than April 2024. The feeder steer price reported on May 5 reached $311.50 per cwt, more than $56 higher than the same week last year.
Based on recent price data, assumed adequate forage supplies, and the suspension of feeder cattle from Mexico, the second-quarter USDA forecast was raised $30 to $310 per cwt and the third and fourth quarters were raised by $20 to $302 and $306 per cwt, respectively.
The 2025 annual feeder steer price was forecast at $298.53 per cwt, a 15% increase from 2024.
BEEF TRADE DEFICIT TO REMAIN WIDE
The 2025 and 2026 beef trade deficit was expected to remain wide as lower production limits exportable supplies and stimulates imports. 2026 exports were forecast at 2.495 billion pounds, a 6% decrease.
As a percent of production, 2026 exports would be just under 10%. 2025, exports as a percent of production were forecast at just over 10% while the 2020–24 average was around 12%.
CTTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $219.93 per cwt to $228.50, compared with last week’s range of $220.35 to $227.53 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $344.06 per cwt to $350.89, compared with $342.45 to $357.95.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $0.84 per cwt at $359.59 while select was up $3.32 at $348.28. The choice/select spread narrowed to $11.31 from $13.79 with 94 loads of fabricated product and 28 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $378.41 per cwt, and 50% beef was $131.68.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.15 to $1.25 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.61, up $0.06 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $297.64 per cwt, up $0.31. This compares with Wednesday’s May contract settlement of $296.30, up $0.30.