USDA Cuts 2016 Total Meat Production Forecast

The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board Monday cut its estimate of total 2016 US meat and poultry production from its estimate last month.

Reductions in beef, pork and chicken production were seen in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from the agency.  The turkey production estimate was the only one that was raised.

The beef production forecast for the year was lowered from the August estimate as third-quarter fed steer and heifer slaughter is coming in lower than expected.  Monday’s WASDE report estimated this year’s beef production at 24.942 billion pounds, down 20 million, or 0.08%, from the August projection of 24.962 billion.

The agency left the 2017 beef production estimate unchanged at 25.8 billion pounds, an increase of 858 million, or 3.44%.  And the new 2016 production estimate remains 1.244 billion pounds, or 5.25%, above last year’s 23.698 billion.

Beef import forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were left unchanged at 2.955 billion and 2.600 billion pounds, respectively.  However, they were 416 million (12.3%) and 771 million (22.9%) below the 2015 total of 3.371 billion.

The 2016 beef export forecast was raised 10 million pounds, or 0.41%, to 2.460 billion from the August estimate of 2.450 billion on improving trade prospects, but the forecast was unchanged for 2017.




The pork production forecast for 2016 was lowered 15 million pounds, or 0.06%, to 24.892 billion pounds from the August estimate of 24.907 billion.  The report said economists expected slightly lower third-quarter carcass weights.

The 2017 pork production estimate was left unchanged at 25.510 billion pounds, a gain of 618 million, or 2.48%.  The new estimate was 391 million pounds, or 1.60%, above 2015’s production of 24.501 billion and 618 million, or 2.48%, below the 2017 estimate of 25.510 billion.

The 2016 pork import forecast was 1.150 billion pounds, unchanged from the August estimate but up 34 million, or 3.05%, above 2015’s 1.116 billion.  However, pork imports for 2017 were expected to grow to 1.160 billion pounds, a 10-million-pound, or 0.87%, increase.

Pork exports for 2016 were forecast at 5.193 billion pounds, a decline of 25 million, or 0.48%, from the August estimate of 5.218 billion.  This remains well above the 2015 total of 5.009 billion – 184 million, or 3.67%, to be exact.  The 2017 export total was left unchanged at 5.300 billion pounds, an increase of 107 million, or 2.06%, from the new 2016 estimate.




The latest WASDE estimate of broiler production declined 94 million pounds, or 0.23%, to 40.902 billion pounds from August’s projection of 40.996 billion.  The new estimate also was 854 million pounds, or 2.13%, above 2015 production or 40.048 billion.

The 2017 production estimate was 42.005 billion pounds, down 55 million, or 0.13%, from August’s estimate of 42.060 billion but up 1.103 billion, or 2.70%, from the new 2016 estimate.

Broiler exports for this year were projected at 6.565 billion pounds, compared with 2015’s 6.321 billion and the 2017 estimate of 6.895 billion.




Cash cattle markets Monday were quiet after trading last week $5 per cwt lower on a live basis at $105 and $9 lower on a dressed basis at $166.

The USDA’s choice cutout Monday was $0.37 per cwt lower at $187.53, while select was off $1.05 at $181.22.  The choice/select spread widened to $6.31 from $5.63 with 82 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $135.24 per cwt, down $1.43.  This compares with the Sep settlement Monday of $134.92, up $0.70.