The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Tuesday reduced its estimate of 2020 total red meat and poultry production from last month as the sector adjusts to COVID-19 and economic uncertainty.
However, the World Agricultural Outlook Board’s report said total US red meat and poultry production for 2021 was projected to be greater than 2020 as the sector continues to recover from the effects of COVID-19 this year.
2020 BEEF PRODUCTION HIT BY COVID-19
The 2020 beef production forecast was reduced 1.681 billion pounds, or 6.12%, to 25.764 billion from 27.445 billion in April as lower expected cattle slaughter more than offset heavier carcass weights.
2021 beef production was forecast to be 27.490 billion pounds, up 2.726 billion, or 11.0%, from this year’s 24.764 billion as cattle placements this year were expected to shift toward the latter part of the year and be marketed and slaughtered in 2021. Heavier carcass weights also were expected to support higher production estimates.
Beef exports this year were forecast at 2.894 billion pounds, down 266 million, or 8.42%, from April’s estimate of 3.160 billion.
However, beef exports next year were pegged to rise to 3.140 billion pounds, a gain of 246 million, or 8.50%, from this year.
Beef imports this year were expected to decline 36 million pounds, or 1.22%, to 2.904 billion pounds from 2.940 billion in the April report.
Beef imports next year were expected to total 3.020 billion pounds, up from this year by 116 million, or 3.99%.
2020 PORK PRODUCTION ALSO HIT HARD
The 2020 pork production forecast was lowered 1.599 billion pounds, or 5.51%, to 27.436 billion from 29.035 billion on a slower expected pace of slaughter. However, heavier hog carcass weights were expected to offset part of the lower slaughter.
Pork production next year also was expected to increase 799 million pounds, or 2.91%, to 28.235 billion pounds from this year’s 27.436 billion as the sector recovers from the slaughter adjustments of 2020.
Pork exports for this year were estimated at 7.148 billion pounds, down 327 million, or 4.37%, from April’s estimate of 7.475 billion.
However, 2021 pork exports were put at 7.300 billion pounds, up from this year by 152 million, or 2.13%.
Pork imports this year were forecast at 816 million pounds, up from 815 million in the April estimates.
However, 2021 pork imports were put at 855 million pounds, up from this year’s 816 million.
EVEN CHICKEN PRODUCTION LOWERED
Broiler production estimates for this year were lowered 1.382 billion pounds, or 3.06%, to 43.778 billion from 45.160 billion last month as producers respond to weaker demand and adjustments to the pace of slaughter linked to COVID-19.
Broiler production in 2021 was expected to be 44.975 billion pounds, surpassing 2020’s 43.778 billion by 1.197 billion, or 2.73%, on expectations of improved returns, and turkey production was forecast to rise to 5.885 billion pounds from 2020’s 4.834 billion as producers respond to favorable prices this year.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Light fed cattle trade was reported Tuesday at $110 to $117 per cwt on a live basis, up $2 to $15 from last week. Dressed-basis trading was seen at $185 per cwt, up $5 to $40 from last week.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $6.81 per cwt at $475.39, while select was down $2.00 at $450.97. The choice/select spread widened to $24.42 from $15.61 with 92 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Monday was $123.11 per cwt, up $0.51. This compares with Tuesday’s May contract settlement of $127.30, up $3.65.