This month’s 2024/25 USDA/Economic Research Service US Coarse Grains Outlook called for a slight reduction in supplies, with greater declines in use, lifting ending stocks by nearly 0.5 million short tons.
The March Feed Outlook report said, based on import volumes to date, 2024/25 barley and oats import forecasts were lowered by 1 and 5 million bushels, respectively. Thus, offsetting changes to barley feed and residual and food, seed and industrial use pressure ending stocks.
The reduction in oats supply was expected to affect feed and residual use, leaving ending stocks unchanged, the report said.
Foreign 2024/25 coarse grains production was projected to be up, with gains expected across the complex, the report said. The largest increase was for corn production—particularly India.
Complemented by higher corn production prospects in Russia, Ukraine and Turkey, reductions for South Africa and Mexico were largely offset, the report said. Anticipated gains in 2024/25 barley production were driven by higher expected output in Australia, partly offset by reduced barley output in Argentina and Ukraine.
Lower beginning stocks, stemming from back-year revisions to corn, partly offset coarse grains production gains, the report said. Regardless, these effects were expected to spur domestic coarse grains consumption, reducing export volumes and place pressure on 2024/25 ending stocks.
COMESTIC MARKET
March’s 2024/25 US corn outlook was unchanged from last month, the report said. Import volumes through January suggested the US is poised to hit USDA’s forecast of 25 million bushels.
With no changes to production, the 2024/25 US corn supply estimate remained at 16.655 billion bushels, the report said. Data from the US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census indicated US corn exports for January were the highest thus far in the 2024/25 marketing year at 243 million bushels—contributing to the aggregated marketing year total of more than 970 million bushels.
For reference, the year-to-date total was nearly 240 million bushels higher than last year’s January cumulative total, the report said. Looking ahead, future indicators of US corn exports indicate foreign demand for US corn will remain elevated. In fact, data provided by the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service showed that February corn inspections were nearly 25% larger than last year and closely align with January inspections.
Similarly, US corn commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) through February were 22% more than the same time last year, at 1.951 billion bushels.
And, although Argentina’s corn export prices remained the most competitive with US prices, South American prices remain a premium to US corn export prices.
Thus, corn usage could be on track to meet the current export forecast (2.45 billion bushels).
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $202.49 per cwt to $213.49, compared with last week’s range of $199.50 to $210.11 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $319.17 per cwt to $330.01, compared with $311.12 to $323.01.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $3.11 per cwt at $338.30 while select was up $2.48 at $316.53. The choice/select spread widened to $21.77 from $21.14 with 91 loads of fabricated product and 49 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $383.65 per cwt, and 50% beef was $118.00.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.32 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.51 1/4, down $0.06 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $286.90 per cwt, down $0.35. This compares with Wednesday’s Mar contract settlement of $286.80, down $0.17 and Apr’s $285.87, up $1.02.