The USDA’s new forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production was fractionally higher Monday than last month, as higher beef, pork and broiler forecasts were balanced by a lower turkey forecast.
For 2023, the red meat and poultry production forecast was raised on higher beef and broiler production expectations.
The latest forecasts came in Monday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
Second-half 2022 beef production was raised with higher expected slaughter for the period offset slightly by lower expected third-quarter carcass weights. The new 2022 beef production forecast was 28.006 billion pounds, up 16 million, or 0.06%, from August’s projection of 27.990 billion and up 58 million, or 0.21%, from 2021’s 27.948 billion.
The 2023 beef production forecast was raised to 26.335 billion pounds, up 70 million, or 0.27%, from 26.265 billion in August, but this will be down from the new 2022 forecast by 1.671 billion pounds, or 5.97%, reflecting higher expected placements in late 2022, which will be marketed in the first half of 2023.
The beef import forecast for 2022 was lowered 45 million pounds, or 1.30%, to 3.414 billion pounds from August’s 3.459-billion-pound estimate on July trade data and expectations of slower imports, largely from Oceania during the rest of the year. However, this was up from 2021 imports of 3.346 billion pounds by 68 million, or 2.03%.
The 2022 beef export forecast was unchanged from August at 3.561 billion pounds, but was up from 2021’s shipments of 3.441 billion by 120 million, or 3.49%.
Beef import and export forecasts for 2023 were unchanged from August at 3.200 billion and 3.020 billion pounds, respectively.
PORK PROEUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
Third-quarter 2022 pork production was raised on a higher-than-expected slaughter pace, albeit at slightly lower carcass weights, resulting in a 2022 production estimate of 27.133 billion pounds, up 55 million, or 0.20%, from 27.078 in August but down 542 million, or 1.96%, from 2021’s 27.675 billion.
The pork production estimate for 2023 was left unchanged from August at 27.520 billion pounds, but this would be up from the 2022 estimate by 387 million pounds, or 1.43%.
2022 pork import and export forecasts were lowered to 1.497 billion pounds and 6.494 billion, respectively, on recent data.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
Broiler production was raised slightly on current slaughter data and higher eggs set and chicks placed.
The 2023 broiler production estimate was raised on higher expected eggs set and chicks placed during the year.
The broiler export forecast for 2022 was lowered on recent data and expectations of slowing demand in price sensitive markets; the forecast for 2023 was unchanged.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $141.72 to $144.09 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $141.00 to $150.00. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $222.85 to $223.12 per cwt, versus $223.30 to $228.00.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $1.68 per cwt at $258.94 while select was up $1.03 at $235.76. The choice/select spread widened to $23.18 from $22.53 with 71 loads of fabricated product and 27 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were $2.65 to $2.75 a bushel over the Dec futures, and for southwest Kansas were steady at $0.85 over Dec, which settled at $6.96, up $0.11.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $180.91 per cwt down $0.33. This compares with Monday’s Sep contract settlement of $181.52, down $1.47.