The USDA’s monthly estimate of total 2020 red meat and poultry production was little changed from last month as forecasts for higher beef and pork production nearly offset expected lower poultry production.
The new estimates came in the USDA’s monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report Thursday.
The new estimate for 2021 red meat and poultry production was reduced from last month as lower forecast beef and poultry production estimates more than offset slightly higher pork production expectations.
BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
The 2020 beef production forecast was raised 15 million pounds, or 0.06%, to 27.238 billion pounds from 27.223 billion a month ago as higher non-fed cattle slaughter estimates more than offset lighter expected cattle carcass weights, the USDA said.
The 2021 beef production estimate was reduced 105 million pounds, or 0.38%, to 27.260 billion pounds from 27.365 billion on lower expected fed and non-fed cattle slaughter in the first half of the year.
Based on recent trade data, the beef import forecast for 2020 was reduced 40 million pounds, or 1.16%, to 3.410 billion pounds from 3.450 billion in October. The 2020 beef export forecast was left unchanged at 2.905 billion pounds.
The beef export forecast for 2020 also was left unchanged at 3.080 billion pounds, while the import forecast also held steady at 2.135 billion.
PORK PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
The 2020 pork production estimate was increased 155 million pounds, or 0.55%, from a month ago to 28.336 billion pounds from 28.181 billion on the current pace of slaughter and heavier carcass weights, the USDA said.
The 2021 pork production estimate also was raised, going to 28.510 billion pounds from 28.485 billion, up 25 million, or 0.09%, on heavier carcass weights.
Based on recent trade data, the 2020 pork import forecast was raised to 897 million pounds, up 10 million, or 1.13%, from 887 million in October. The 2021 pork import forecast was unchanged at 945 million pounds/
The pork export forecast for 2020 and 2021 were left unchanged at 2.905 billion and 3.080 billion pounds, respectively.
POULTRY PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
The 2020 broiler production estimate was reduced 148 million pounds, or 0.33%, to 44.083 billion pounds from 44.231 billion a month ago on recent hatcher and slaughter data while turkey production was forecast to be lower on recent slaughter data.
The 2021 broiler and turkey production forecasts were reduced to 44.563 billion and 5.755 billion pounds, respectively, on recent slaughter data.
Broiler and turkey export forecasts for 2020 and 2021 were raised on recent trade data and anticipated strong global import demand from key trading partners.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading was reported in the Plains this week at $106 to $108 per cwt on a live basis, down $4 from last week. Dressed-basis trading was seen at $168 to $170 per cwt, down $4.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $3.67 per cwt at $214.59, while select was off $3.18 at $198.47. The choice/select spread narrowed to $16.12 from $16.61 with 125 loads of fabricated product and 61 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Thursday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.05 to $1.09 a bushel over the Mar CBOT futures contract, which settled at $4.21 1/4 a bushel, down 0.02 1/2.
No delivery intentions for live cattle futures were posted Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $137.11 per cwt, down $0.09. This compares with Thursday’s Jan contract settlement of $137.60 per cwt, up $0.57.