The USDA’s 2018 forecast for total red meat and poultry production was moved fractionally lower than last month’s estimate, as projected lower beef production more than offset higher pork and turkey production.
The estimates were made in the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Thursday where estimated cattle and hog prices for the first quarter of 2018 were raised from last month to $124 to $127 from $122 to $126 for fed steers and $51 to $52 from $49 to $51 for barrows and gilts on current price movements.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE TRIMMED
The 2018 beef production forecast was reduced from 27.725 billion pounds in the February report to 27.685 billion on projections for lower first-quarter slaughter and anticipated lower weights. This was a decline of 40 million pounds, or 0.14%.
However, the expected decline was offset somewhat by forecasts for higher second-quarter fed and non-fed beef production during the first half of the year. First-half total beef production was estimated at 13.705 billion pounds, down 40 million, or 0.29%, from 13.745 billion in the February report.
For 2018, estimated beef imports were raised to 3.040 billion pounds from 3.030 billion in the February report, a gain of 10 million, or 0.33%, as early year demand remains robust. No change was made to beef export estimates of 3.025 billion pounds.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE DOWN
First-half 2018 estimated pork production was lowered to 13.025 billion pounds from 13.035 billion last month, a decline of 10 million, or 0.08%, on a slower pace of slaughter. However, higher carcass weights were expected, and the second-half production estimate was increased by 35 million pounds, or 0.25%, to 13.885 billion pounds from 13.850 billion in the February report.
The USDA is scheduled to release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 29, providing an indication of producer intentions for farrowings in the next two quarters.
The pork import forecast was raised to 1.065 billion pounds from February’s forecast of 1.000 billion, a gain of 65 million, or 6.50%, on expected demand strength. Pork export forecasts also were raised from last month to 5.925 billion pounds, from 5.900 billion, a gain of 25 million, or 0.42%.
BROILER PRODUCTION SEEN STEADY
Estimated broiler production was left unchanged at 42.144 billion pounds.
Estimates of 2017 broiler, turkey meat and egg supply and utilization were adjusted to reflect revised annual production and storage summary data.
Broiler export forecasts were unchanged at 6.950 billion pounds, but turkey export predictions were reduced slightly to 635 million from 645 million on weaker expected demand in key markets.
The second-quarter broiler price forecast was raised to $0.96 to $1.00 a pound from $0.92 to $0.98 last month on stronger expected demand.
Turkey prices were reduced through the third quarter on the continued slow recovery in demand, resulting in an annual estimate of $0.86 to $91 a pound from $0.88 to $0.94.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle sold Wednesday on the Livestock Exchange Video Auction at a steady $126 per cwt.
Cash sales this week were at $126 per cwt on a live basis, steady to $1 lower than last week. Dressed-basis trading was reported at $204 to $204.50, steady to down $0.50.
The USDA’s choice cutout Thursday was up $0.31 per cwt at $223.88, while select was up $1.58 at $216.78. The choice/select spread narrowed to $7.10 from $8.37 with 88 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Wednesday, was $144.72 per cwt, down $0.24. This compares with Thursday’s Mar settlement of $141.75, down $2.02.