Near the bottom of Wednesday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was a lowered prediction for total meat production this year.
The total 2018 red meat production forecast was lowered to 53.992 billion pounds from 54.026 billion in August, while this year’s broiler production forecast was raised slightly to 42.620 billion pounds from 42.615 billion.
Production forecasts for 2019 beef, pork and broiler production forecasts were unchanged, with only a small increase made to turkey production.
The second-quarter broiler production estimate was raised slightly, reflecting revised hatchery data, but no change was made to outlying forecasts.
Second-half turkey production estimates were lowered on recent production data.
BEEF IMPORT FORECASTS STEADY
Beef import forecasts were unchanged for 2018 and 2019, while export forecasts were raised on expectations of continued strong demand to several key trading partners, the report said.
The annual 2018 beef production forecast was unchanged 27.094 billion pounds as increases in second-half cattle slaughter were offset by lighter expected carcass weights. The 2019 production forecast also was unchanged at 27.720 billion pounds.
The third-quarter fed steer price forecast was raised to $108 to $111 per cwt from $107 to $111 last month on current price strength, but the fourth-quarter forecast was reduced to $108 to $114 from $109 to $115 as the expected pace of marketings was raised.
PORK IMPORT FORECAST DOWN
Pork imports for 2018 and 2019 were lowered from the August report, while export forecasts for both years were raised from the previous month as US pork was expected to remain competitively priced in international markets.
The report said the 2018 pork production forecast was reduced to 26.675 billion pounds from 26.710 billion on the current pace of slaughter and slightly lighter expected carcass weights in the third quarter. For 2019, the annual production forecast was left unchanged at 27.875 billion pounds.
Hog price forecasts for 2018 were lowered to $43 to $44 per cwt from $44 to $45 on current prices and pressure from expected abundant meat supplies.
For 2019, the first-quarter hog price forecast was reduced to $36 to $38 per cwt from $37 to $41, but the annual price forecast range was unchanged at $39 to $42.
BROILER PRICE OUTLOOK REDUCED
Broiler price forecasts were reduced from last month for 2018 to 96 to 98 cents a pound from 99 cents to $1.01 and for 2019 to 92 cents to $1.00 from 96 cents to $1.04 amid strong competition from other meats.
The annual turkey price forecast was reduced for 2018 to 80 to 82 cents a pound from 81 to 83 cents as slightly higher third-quarter turkey prices were more than offset by expected lower prices in the fourth quarter. The 2019 forecast was reduced from August.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
No fed cattle sold Wednesday on the Livestock Exchange Video Auction, compared with 280 that traded three weeks previous at $109.50 per cwt.
Light cash cattle trading was reported in Nebraska Tuesday at a steady $107 per cwt on a live basis and $170 dressed.
Cash cattle traded last week at $107 to $108 per cwt on a live basis, unchanged from the previous week, and at $168 to $170 on a dressed basis, also unchanged.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $1.28 per cwt at $204.79, while select was off $1.04 at $197.27. The choice/select spread narrowed to $7.52 from $7.76 with 108 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Tuesday, was $152.63 per cwt, up $0.54. This compares with Wednesday’s Sep settlement of $154.67, up $2.50.