USDA Lowers 2023 Red Meat, Poultry Production

The USDA’s latest forecast for 2023 red meat and poultry production was reduced from last month with lower beef, pork, broiler and turkey forecasts.

 

2023 BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER

 

The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Thursday said the 2023 beef production estimate was lowered 44,000 pounds, or 0.16%, to 26.932 million pounds from 26.976 million in last month’s report with predicted declines in steer and heifer slaughter more than offsetting higher expected cow slaughter and higher average fourth-quarter dressed weights.  The new estimate also was down 1.359 million pounds, or 4.80%, from last year’s 28.291-million-pound total.

For 2024, the beef production forecast was raised to 25.810 million pounds from last month’s 25.295-million-pound estimate, a gain of 515,000, or 2.04%.

Higher expected steer and heifer placements in the later part of this year and the first part of 2024 could lead to higher marketings of fed cattle, particularly in the first half.  In addition, the cow and bull slaughter estimate was raised from last month.

Beef import estimates for 2023 were raised to 3.653 million pounds from 3.617 million last month and 3.390 million last year on recent trade data and stronger expected imports from Australia in the fourth quarter.

For 2024, beef import estimates were raised to 3.690 million pounds from 3.650 million last month based on higher expected imports from Australia from tight US beef supplies.

Beef exports for 2023 were raised to 3.035 million pounds from 3.034 million last month on reported data for the third quarter, but the new estimate was down from 2022’s 3.544 million pounds.  Beef export forecasts for 2024 were unchanged.

 

2023 PORK PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER

 

The 2023 pork production estimate was lowered to 27.217 million from 27.289 million a month ago on lighter dressed weight predictions in the fourth quarter.  However, it was down from 2022’3 26.996 million pounds.

The 2024 pork production estimate was lowered to 27.730 million pounds from 27.895 million a month ago.

Forecast 2023 pork imports were raised to 1.134 million pounds from 1.125 million last month, and exports were lowered to 6.734 million pounds from 6.761 million last month on observed data, but the forecasts were unchanged for 2024 at 1.175 million and 6.950 million pounds, respectively.

 

2023 CHICKEN PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER

 

The 2023 broiler production estimate was lowered as eggs set and chicks placed data point toward further production declines in the fourth quarter.

The expected 2024 pace of broiler production growth was reduced from last month.

Broiler export estimate forecasts for 2023 were lowered based on recent trade data, with the lowered outlook carrying over into the 2024 export forecast because of weaker international demand and tighter domestic supplies.

This year’s turkey production forecast was lowered based on current hatchery and slaughter data.

 

CATTLE, BEEF RECAP

 

The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $185.00 per cwt to $187.95, compared with last week’s range of $183.70 to $187.04 per cwt.  FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $290.71 per cwt to $293.89, compared with $290.70 to $293.67.

The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $0.67 per cwt at $299.42 while select was down $1.61 at $269.42.  The choice/select spread widened to $30.00 from $27.72 with 81 loads of fabricated product and 52 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.35 to $1.45 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.68 a bushel, down 8.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $237.01 per cwt, down $1.12.  This compares with Thursday’s Nov contract settlement of $229.00, down $5.55.