The USDA’s new estimate of 2024 red meat and poultry production was lowered from last month because of lower fourth-quarter beef, pork, broiler and turkey production, according to Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand report.
Changes in the estimates reflect November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December.
LOWER BEEF PRODUCTION FORECAST
The 2024 beef production estimate was put at 26.985 billion pounds, down 50 million, or 0.18%, from the December estimate of 27.035 billion but up 18 million, or 0.07%, from 2023’s 26.967 billion.
For 2025, the beef production forecast was raised 125 million, or 0.48%, to 25.790 billion pounds from December’s estimate of 25.665 billion on an expected increase in steer and heifer slaughter from larger placement forecasts during the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as higher dressed weights. However, the new estimate was down from the new 2024 estimate by 1.195 billion pounds, or 4.43%.
USDA’s Cattle (Inventory) report, scheduled for release Jan. 31, is expected to provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2025 as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers for addition to the breeding herd.
Beef import and export estimates for 2024 were raised on recent trade data. The new import estimate was 4.618 billion pounds, up 30 million, or 0.65%, from the December estimate of 4.588 million and up 893 million, or 24.0%, from 2023’s 3.725 billion. The new export estimate was 2.995 billion pounds, up 35 million, or 1.18%, from 2.960 billion in December but down from 2023’s 3.038 billion.
For 2025, beef imports were raised 60 million pounds, or 1.27%, to 4.770 billion pounds from the December estimate of 4.710 billion largely on continued strong shipments of beef from Oceania and South America. The 2025 beef export forecast was left unchanged at 2.595 billion pounds, which was down 400 million, or 13.4%, from 2024’s estimate.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2024 pork production estimate was raised 35 million pounds, or 0.13%, to 27.788 billion pounds from 27.823 billion in December, reflecting pig crop and farrowings data for the second half of the year and the first half of 2025 published in the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. The new estimate was up 486 million pounds, or 1.78%, from 2023’s 27.302 billion pounds.
Pork exports for 2024 were lowered to 7.108 billion pounds from 7.118 billion in December based on recent trade data, but exports for 2025 were left unchanged at 7.325 billion pounds.
BROILER PRODUCTION LOWERED
The 2024 broiler production estimate was lowered based to 46.987 billion pounds from 47.187 billion in December on recent slaughter data indicating lower-than-previously expected weights.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $197.00 per cwt to $201.40, compared with the previous week’s range of $191.11 to $200.42 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $304.49 per cwt to $315.25, compared with $301.97 to $310.00.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $2.06 per cwt at $332.84 while select was up $5.79 at $314.14. The choice/select spread narrowed to $18.70 from $22.43 with 87 loads of fabricated product and 41 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $341.59 per cwt, and 50% beef was $112.74.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.25 to $1.38 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.70 1/2, up $0.14 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $278.55 per cwt, up $3.55. This compares with Friday’s Jan contract settlement of $272.35, up $3.12.