The USDA’s latest forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production was reduced from last month, in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Tuesday.
BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN DOWN
The beef production forecast for this year was lowered 262 million pounds, or 1.00%, to 25.926 billion pounds from 26.188 billion last month on reduced fed and non-fed cattle slaughter and lighter dressed weights, the WASDE report said. The new estimate also was down 1.058 billion pounds, or 3.92%, from last year’s 26.984 billion pounds.
For 2026, the beef production estimate was lowered 345 million pounds, or 1.34%, to 25.470 billion pounds from 25.815 billion last month because of reduced expected placements in the second half of 2025, as well as possibly reduced cow slaughter. This would be down from the new 2025 production estimate by 456 million pounds, or 1.76%.
Beef imports for 2025 were lowered from July reflecting reported trade data through the first half of the year, as well as reduced shipments because of higher tariff rates, particularly from Brazil. The reduction is carried into beef imports for 2026.
The 2025 beef export forecast was reduced from July, reflecting tighter domestic supplies. The reduction was carried into lower exports for the first half of 2026.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE REDUCED
The estimate for 2025 pork production was reduced to 27.747 billion pounds, down 294 million, or 1.05%, from 28.041 billion last month, reflecting official data reported through the first half of the year, as well as a slower slaughter rate and ideas of reduced dressed weights in the third and fourth quarters, the report said. It also was down 42 million pounds, or 0.15%, from 27.789 billion pounds last year.
The 2026 pork production forecast was lowered 100 million pounds, or 0.35%, to 28.380 billion pounds from 28.480 billion last month on ideas of reduced slaughter and lighter dressed weights carrying into 2026. However, this would be up from the new 2025 production estimate by 633 million pounds, or 2.28%.
The pork export forecast for 2025 was raised based on official data reported through June. No changes were made to 2026 pork exports.
CHICKEN PRODUCTIONM ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2025 broiler production estimate was raised72 million pounds, or 0.15%, to 47.762 billion pounds from 47.690 billion pounds last month reflecting recent production and hatchery data, the USDA said. This also was up 768 million pounds, or 1.63%, from last year’s 46.994 billion pounds.
The broiler export forecast also was raised for 2025 based on data through June and was unchanged for 2026.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $236.15 per cwt to $240.84, compared with last week’s range of $235.00 to $247.10 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $371.71 per cwt to $382.02, compared with $366.72 to $388.63.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $9.06 per cwt at $390.58 while select was up $6.03 at $365.64. The choice/select spread widened to $24.94 from $21.91 with 77 loads of fabricated product and 29 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $417.00 per cwt, and 50% beef was $177.69.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were down $0.15 at $1.30 to $1.45 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $3.71 1/2, down $0.13 1/2.
No live cattle delivery intentions were posted.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $342.69 per cwt, up $1.65. This compares with Tuesday’s Aug contract settlement of $345.37, up $5.15.