The USDA’s new total US red meat and poultry production forecast for 2025 was lowered from last month, said its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report Thursday.
For 2026, the red meat and poultry production forecast was raised on higher beef and turkey production estimates.
2025 BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER
The beef production forecast for 2025 was lowered to 26.358 billion pounds from 26.423 billion a month earlier on reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter and ideas of reduced cow slaughter for the remainder of the year. It’s also down from 2024’s 26.984 billion pounds.
For 2026, the beef production estimate was raised to 25.275 billion pounds from 25.140 billion last month primarily on thoughts of higher feedlot placements in the second half of 2025 and early 2026, which were expected to result in higher steer and heifer slaughter for 2026, but it remains lower than 2025’s new estimate.
The beef export forecast for 2025 was raised to 2.708 billion pounds from 2.663 billion in May on recent trade data and continued strong demand from key export markets, but it remains less than 2024’s 3.003 billion pounds.
The 2025 beef import forecast also was raised on strong imports from Oceania and South America, as well as robust domestic demand for lean processing beef. The new estimate was 5.187 billion pounds, compared with 5.072 billion last month and 4.635 billion last year.
2025 PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE STEADY
The pork production forecast for 2025 was unchanged from the previous month at 27.996 billion pounds, which was up from 2024’s 27.789 billion.
The 2026 pork production estimate was left unchanged at 28.370 billion pounds.
The pork export forecast was reduced for 2025 to 6.948 billion pounds from 7.058 billion in May and from 7.115 billion last year on recent trade data and increased export competition.
For 2026, pork exports also were reduced on continued export competition. The new estimate was 7.000 billion pounds versus 7.140 billion last month.
2025 CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
Broiler production is raised on recent production and hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered on recent hatchery data.
The 2026 broiler production forecast was left unchanged.
The 2025 broiler export forecast was raised based on recent trade data indicating higher shipments in the second quarter. The broiler export forecast for 2026 was left unchanged.
The 2026 turkey production estimate was raised on improved returns.
The turkey export forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were lowered as higher US prices were expected to make exports less competitive in destination markets.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $225.15 per cwt to $239.52, compared with last week’s range of $223.72 to $234.90 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $353.24 per cwt to $376.32, compared with $349.46 to $370.67.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $1.96 per cwt at $376.72 while select was up $2.32 at $363.07. The choice/select spread narrowed to $13.65 from $14.01 with 66 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $388.69 per cwt, and 50% beef was $150.43.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were up $0.05 to $0.07 at $1.30 to $1.32 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.38 1/2, up $0.01 1/2.
No live cattle delivery notices were posted.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $314.62 per cwt, up $0.58. This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $311.25, up $0.17.