The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board lowered its estimate of 2022 red meat and poultry production slightly from last month as lower pork and broiler production estimates are offset by higher beef and turkey production forecasts.
The 2023 red meat and poultry production forecast was raised from last month as higher pork production forecasts more than offset a lower beef production outlook.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE MIXED
The 2022 beef production estimate was raised for the second half with lower expected carcass weights and lower third-quarter slaughter more than offset by higher fourth-quarter slaughter.
The new beef production estimate for this year was 27.922 billion pounds, up 15 million, or 0.05%, from 27.907 billion in last month’s report. However, it was down 26 million, or 0.09%, from 2021’s production of 27.948 billion pounds.
The 2023 beef production forecast was lowered 10 million pounds, or 0.04%, to 25.940 billion pounds from 25.950 billion last month on lower expected carcass weights in early 2023. The USDA’s Cattle report, scheduled for July 22, is expected to provide an indication of producer intentions for heifer retention and the 2022 calf crop.
Beef import forecasts for 2022 and 2023 were unchanged from last month while the export forecasts were raised for both years on firm international demand.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE MIXED
The 2022 pork production estimate was lowered to 27.159 billion pounds from 27.219 billion last month, a decline of 60 million, or 0.22%, on a slower-than-expected pace of slaughter in June and lower expected second-half carcass weights. It also was down 516 million, or 1.86%, from last year’s production of 27.675 billion pounds.
The 2023 pork production forecast was raised to 27.520 billion pounds from 27.365 billion last month based on 2022 second-half farrowing intentions reported in USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, and expectations that farrowings in the first half of 2023 will be modestly higher. This was a gain of 155 million pounds, or 0.57%.
Pork import forecasts were raised for 2022 and 2023 on the current pace of trade and firm US demand. Pork export estimates were reduced for 2022 but expected strength in foreign demand early in 2023 supported a slight increase in exports then.
BROILER PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWER
The 2022 broiler production estimate was lowered 25 million pounds, or 0.06%, to 45.295 billion pounds from 45.320 billion last month on second-quarter slaughter data but was offset partly by higher expected third-quarter production expectations. However, it was up 396 million pounds, or 0.88%, from 2021’s production of 44.899 billion pounds.
The 2022 turkey production forecast was raised based on hatchery data.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $137.00 to $149.83 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $138.00 to $148.92. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $219.24 to $220.25 per cwt, versus $217.96 to $226.88.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $0.37 per cwt at $268.51, while select was down $0.83 at $242.17. The choice/select spread widened to $26.34 from $25.14 with 133 loads of fabricated product and 45 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were steady at $2.75 to $2.85 a bushel over the Sep futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at $0.10 under Sep, which settled at $5.94, down $0.43.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $171.34 per cwt down $0.87. This compares with Tuesday’s Aug contract settlement of $179.57, up $4.70.