The 2022 USDA forecast for total red meat and poultry production was lowered from last month, as reduced forecasts for pork and poultry offset a higher forecast for beef, the USDA said in Friday’s monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates report.
BEEF PRODUCTION FORECAST RAISED
The beef production forecast was raised 140 million pounds, or 0.51%, to 27.710 billion pounds from 27.570 billion in the March report as higher expected first-quarter placements supported larger fed cattle slaughter later, the USDA said. More non-fed cattle slaughter also was expected. The new estimate, however, was down 227 million, or 0.81%, from last year’s 27.937 billion pounds.
This year’s beef exports were forecast at 3.300 billion pounds, unchanged from last month but down 147 million, or 4.26%, from 3.447 billion last year, based on recent trade data, the report said. Estimated beef imports, at 3.440 billion pounds, were up from the March estimate of 3.420 billion by 20 million, or 0.58%.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
The pork production forecast was lowered 240 million pounds, or 0.88%, to 27.075 billion pounds from 27.315 billion in March based on the USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report from March 30, which indicated producers’ intentions to reduce farrowings in March-May, the WASDE report said. The new estimate also was down from last year’s 27.673 billion pounds by 598 million, or 2.16%.
The pork import estimate for this year was 1.400 billion pounds, up from March’s estimate of 1.385 billion and up from last year’s 1.180 billion. Exports were reduced 135 million pounds, or 2.01%, to 6.595 billion from 6.730 billion in March and down 435 million, or 6.19%, from last year’s 7.030 billion on tight supplies and strong domestic prices, the report said.
BROILER PRODUCRTION ESTIMATE REDUCED
The broiler production estimate was reduced to 45.200 billion pounds, down 25 million, or 0.06%, from 45.225 billion last month on lower expected first-quarter slaughter, the report said. The new estimate, however, was up 301 million, or 0.67%, from 44.899 million last year.
No changes were made to production estimates in outlying quarters.
The broiler export forecast of 7.365 billion pounds was raised 60 million, or 0.82%, from 7.305 billion last month as import demand was strong in the early part of the year, the USDA said. The new estimate, however, was down from 7.367 billion last year.
Turkey meat production estimates were 5.470 billion pounds, down 150 million, or 2.67%, from 5.620 billion last month, lowered as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza discoveries to date resulted in tighter supplies of turkeys, the WASDE report said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $138.00 to $140.18 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $138.00 to $141.00. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $217.01 to $220.09 per cwt, versus $217.13 to $221.25.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $1.64 per cwt at $272.11, while select was down $0.04 at $260.29. The choice/select spread widened to $11.82 from $10.14 with 62 loads of fabricated product and 19 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported that basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were steady to up $0.05 at $1.45 to $1.55 a bushel over the May futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.10 over May, which settled at $7.64 1/2 a bushel, down $0.04 1/4.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Monday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $155.67 per cwt down $0.14. This compares with Monday’s Apr contract settlement $156.65, up $0.10.