The USDA’s monthly forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production was raised from last month as higher beef, broiler and turkey forecasts for the fourth quarter were partly offset by a lower pork production forecast.
The new predictions came in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday, which included production estimates for crops as well as meats.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2022 beef production forecast was raised 70 million pounds, or 0.25%, to 28.417 billion from 28.347 billion last month with higher expected cattle slaughter as well as heavier carcass weights. The new estimate also was 369 million pounds, or 1.68%, more than last year’s production of 27.948 billion.
For 2023, the beef production forecast was unchanged from last month at 26.275 billion pounds, with offsetting first and second quarter changes, down 2.142 billion, or 7.53%, from the 2022 estimate.
Beef import expectations for 2022 were unchanged at 3.376 billion pounds, which was up 30 million, or 0.90%, from 2021’s 3.346 billion, but the export forecast was raised 20 million, or 0.56%, to 3.562 billion pounds from 3.542 billion on recent data. The 2022 estimate also would be up 121 million, or 3.52%, from 2021’s exports of 3.441 billion pounds.
The 2023 beef export estimate was raised 20 million pounds, or 0.65%, to 3.090 billion pounds from 3.070 billion last month on expectations of continued momentum to East Asian markets, but it still would be less than 2021 shipments.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMARE LOWERED
The 2022 pork production estimate was lowered to 27.061 billion pounds from 27.121 billion last month and from 27.675 billion last year on lighter carcass weights.
The 2023 pork production estimate was unchanged from November at 27.345 billion pounds, but it would be up from the 2022 production estimate.
Pork imports were placed at 1.399 billion pounds, down from 1.424 billion last month but up from 2021’s 1.180 billion. Exports for 2022 were estimated at 6.334 billion pounds, down from November’s 6.334 billion and down from 2021’s 7.026 billion.
Pork imports for 2023 were lowered slightly to 1.400 billion pounds from 1.410 billion but would be up from last year, while exports were unchanged at 6.280 billion.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
Broiler production estimates for 2022 were raised to 46.095 billion pounds from 45.974 billion in November and from 44.899 billion last year on current slaughter and hatchery data.
The 2023 broiler production estimate was raised to 46.925 billion pounds from November’s 46.825 billion on more rapid expected growth in bird numbers later in the year.
The broiler export forecast for 2022 was raised on recent trade data, while 2023 export estimates were lowered.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $156.04 to $157.16 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $155.00 to $159.07. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $246.16 to $246.36 per cwt, versus $243.70 to $251.95.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $8.09 per cwt at $257.02 while select was up $4.42 at $225.68. The choice/select spread widened to $31.34 from $27.67 with 54 loads of fabricated product and 48 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were steady at $1.90 to $2.10 a bushel over the Mar futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $1.00 over Mar, which settled at $6.54, up $0.10.
No cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Monday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $179.94 per cwt up $0.72. This compares with Monday’s Jan contract settlement of $183.65, down $0.27.