The latest USDA forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production was increased as views of higher poultry and beef production were offset partially by a lower pork production estimate.
2024 BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
The 2024 beef production estimate was raised 10 million pounds, or 0.04%, to 27.035 billion pounds from 27.025 billion in November and 68 million, or 0.25%, from 26.967 billion in 2023 on higher steer and heifer slaughter estimates, as well as heavier dressed weights.
For 2025, the beef production forecast was reduced615 million pounds, or 2.34%, to 25.665 billion pounds from 26.280 billion in November because of the current restrictions on cattle imports from Mexico. The restrictions would result in lower feedlot placements throughout the year and reduce beef production, particularly in the second half of the year.
2024 PORK PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER
The 2024 pork production estimate was reduced 35 million pounds, or 0.13%, to 27.823 billion pounds from 27.858 billion in November on lighter dressed weights. However, it remained 521 million, or 1.91%, higher than 2023’s 27.302 billion pounds.
The 2025 pork production forecast was reduced 30 million pounds, or 0.11%, to 28.370 billion pounds from 28.400 billion in November on lighter expected dressed weights in the first half of the year.
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, set to be published Dec. 23, was expected to provide estimates of the pig crops and producer farrowing intentions affecting 2025 production.
2024 CHICKEN PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
The 2024 broiler production estimate was raised 3 million pounds, or 0.01%, to 47.187 billion pounds from 47.184 billion in November and was up 800 million, or 1.72%, from 2023’s production of 46.387 billion on revised production data for the third quarter, with no changes to the fourth-quarter forecast.
The broiler production estimate for the first quarter of 2025 was raised based on recent hatchery data indicating more production early in the year. This resulted in a 2025 production estimate of 47.925 billion pounds, up 75 million, or 0.16%, from 47.850 billion in November.
The 2024 turkey production estimate was raised for the fourth quarter on heavier expected weights, as well as the latest hatchery and production data. The 2024 production estimate was 5.147 billion pounds, compared with November’s 5.122 billion but was down from 2023’s 5.457 billion pounds.
The 2025 turkey production estimate was lowered to 5.145 billion pounds from November’s 5.165 billion on HPAI-related culling reported through early December.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $191.18 per cwt to $192.80, compared with last week’s range of $189.83 to $193.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $298.61 per cwt to $301.30, compared with $292.77 to $303.53.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $2.41 per cwt at $311.73 while select was up $0.31 at $279.65. The choice/select spread narrowed to $32.08 from $34.80 with 95 loads of fabricated product and 34 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $319.76 per cwt, and 50% beef was $77.77.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.26 to $1.43 a bushel over the Mar corn contract and in Kansas were unchanged at $0.15 over Mar. Mar settled at $4.49 1/2, up $0.01.
No delivery intentions were posted for the Dec live cattle contract Tuesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $261.62 per cwt, down $0.63. This compares with Tuesday’s Jan contract settlement of $257.32, up $1.52.