For 2024, the US Department of Agriculture’s estimate for red meat and poultry production was raised from last month.
The USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Thursday said the beef production estimate was raised because of heavier weights and higher slaughter.
The pork production forecast was raised on higher hog slaughter more than offsetting a slight decline in weights. The current outlook for hog slaughter in 2024 reflects the information provided in the March 28 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that showed higher pig crops than previously reported for 2023 and continued strong growth in pigs per litter in early 2024.
The broiler production estimate was raised based on recent production and hatchery data, as well as a continuing trend of heavier bird weights. The turkey production estimate was raised for the first quarter on recent production and hatchery data.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RISES
The new beef production estimate for 2024 was 26.455 million pounds, up 130,000, or 0.49%, from the March estimate of 26.325 million but down 508,000, or 1.88%, from 2023’s 26.963 million.
The beef export estimate was raised for 2024 to 2.805 million pounds, up 20,000, or 0.72%, from 2.785 million based on recent trade data. However, this was down from the 2023 total of 3.038 million pounds by 233,000 pounds, or 7.67%.
Beef imports for 2024 were estimated at 4.175 million pounds, unchanged from the March estimate but up from 2023’s 3.727 million pounds by 448,000, or 12.0%.
PORK PROEUCTION ESTIMATE RISES
The USDA’s new pork production estimate for this year was 28.090 million pounds, up 180,000, or 0.64%, from 27.910 million in the last report. This also was up 789,000 pounds, or 2.89%, from 2023’s 27.301 million pounds.
Pork exports were estimated at 7.340 million pounds, up 210,000, or 2.95%, from 7.130 million in March and up 522,000, or 7.66%, from 6.818 million last year. Larger US pork supplies were expected to support larger exports.
Despite the larger US supplies and export estimates, 2024 pork imports were seen higher at 1.205 million pounds, up 20,000 pounds, or 1.69%, from 1.185 million in the March report and up 62,000, or 5.42%, from last year’s 1.143 million.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
US chicken production this year was projected at 47.100 million pounds, up 225,000, or 0.48%, from 46.875 million last month and up 713,000, or 1.54%, from the 46.387 million pounds produced last year.
Broiler exports for 2024 were expected to be lower based on recent trade data and expectations that higher prices may affect trade to many price-sensitive markets.
Turkey exports were unchanged.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $184.00 per cwt to $190.00, compared with last week’s range of $185.94 to $195.38 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $290.43 per cwt to $295.37, compared with $293.28 to $299.46.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $0.14 per cwt at $298.37 while select was down $0.87 at $295.15. The choice/select spread widened to $3.22 from $2.21 with 82 loads of fabricated product and 42 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The daily weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $346.12 per cwt, and 50% beef was $92.37.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.40 to $1.50 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.28 3/4 a bushel, down $0.05 1/2.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $243.65 per cwt, down $1.84. This compares with Thursday’s Apr contract settlement of $239.17, up $0.90.