In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday, the USDA raised its 2024 red meat and poultry production forecasts from last month with higher beef, pork and broiler production more than offsetting lower turkey production estimates.
Historical red meat, poultry and egg supply and use estimates were adjusted to reflect revisions in slaughter, inventory, cold storage and production data.
BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
The 2024 beef production forecast was raised 140 million pounds, or 0.53%, to 26.325 billion pounds from 26.185 billion in February as lower expected slaughter in the first quarter is more than offset by higher slaughter for outlying quarters. The new estimate also is down from 2023’s total of 26.963 billion pounds by 638 million pounds, or 2.37%.
The beef import forecast for 2024 was raised to 4.175 billion pounds, up 50 million, or 1.21%, from 4.125 billion in February and up from 3.727 billion in 2023.based on recent trade data, but export estimates were unchanged from February at 2.785 billion pounds, which was down 253 million pounds, or 8.33%, from 2023’s 3.038 billion.
PORK PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
The 2024 pork production forecast was raised 30 million pounds, or 0.11%, to 27.910 billion pounds from 27.880 billion a month ago based on a more rapid pace of slaughter in the first quarter, which is only partially offset by lower weights. This also was up 609 million pounds, or 2.23%, from 2023’s 27.301-billion-pound total.
The USDA is to release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 28, providing a further indication of hog supplies for slaughter in the second half of the year.
Pork export estimates were raised 50 million pounds, or 0.71%, to 7.130 billion pounds from 7.080 billion in February based on the latest trade data and continued strength in shipments to several key markets. It also was raised 312 million pounds, or 4.58%, from the 2023 total of 6.818 billion pounds.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The broiler production estimate was raised 100 million pounds, or 0.21%, to 46.875 billion pounds from 46.775 billion last month on placement and slaughter data for the first quarter and expectations that lower feed costs will support higher production later in the year. This was up from 2023’s 46.387 billion pounds by 488 million pounds, or 1.05%.
The broiler export forecast was lowered based on recent data and expectations of demand weakness in Asia.
The turkey production estimate was lowered for the first half of the year on the most recent production and hatchery data.
Turkey export forecasts were raised based on the latest trade data.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $183.58 per cwt to $186.24, compared with the previous week’s range of $182.64 to $185.54 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $287.28 per cwt to $291.88, compared with $283.61 to $290.96.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $0.43 per cwt at $307.04 while select was up $1.17 at $297.43. The choice/select spread narrowed to $9.61 from $10.35 with 76 loads of fabricated product and five loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The daily weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $323.80 per cwt, and 50% beef was $96.05.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.40 to $1.50 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.39 3/4 a bushel, up $0.01 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $248.74 per cwt, up $0.67. This compares with Friday’s Mar contract settlement of $249.20, down $1.82.