The USDA’s latest 2025 beef and pork production forecasts were raised from last month in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Tuesday, while chicken output was expected to be about steady with the January report.
MEXICAN BORDER REOPENS
On Feb. 1, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service announced the resumption of cattle imports from Mexico through approved facilities and newly implemented protocols to mitigate the spread of New World Screwworm.
Additionally, the USDA’s January Cattle (Inventory) report estimated a larger calf crop for 2024 and a smaller decline in cattle outside feedlots than previously expected. As a result, higher placements were forecast for the year, and the slaughter estimate was raised, primarily in the second half of the year.
The new 2025 beef production estimate was 26.565 million pounds, up 775,000. Or 3.01%, from 25.790 million in January but down 423,000, or 1.57%, from 2024’s 26.988 million.
Dressed weight estimates also were raised for 2025.
Beef export estimates for 2025 were raised 200 million pounds, or 7.71%, to 2.795 billion pounds from 2.595 billion in January, which was down 208 million, or 6.93%, from the 2024 total of 3.003 billion on the increase in production and continued strong global beef demand. Beef import estimates were unchanged from January at 4.770 billion pounds, up 135 million, or 2.91%, from 2024’s 4.635 billion.
PORK PRODUCTION RAISED
The 2025 pork production estimate was raised 20 million pounds, or 0.07%, to 28.530 billion pounds from 28.510 billion in January as expected higher weights throughout the year more than offset the slower rate of slaughter expected in the first quarter. The new estimate was up 740 million pounds, or 2.66%, from 2024’s 27.790 billion pounds.
Pork export estimates were lowered for the second half of the year on slower-than-expected growth in several key export markets. The result was a 2025 forecast of 7.295 billion pounds, down from January’s estimate of 7.325 billion but up from 2024’s 7.115 billion.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE STEADY
The 2025 broiler production estimate was unchanged from January at 47.625 billion pounds, up 637 million, or 1.36%, from 2024’s 46.988 billion, with an expected slower rate of slaughter in the first quarter, in part because of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza-related culling, offset by increased production in the third quarter.
The 2025 broiler export forecast was lowered to 8.605 billion pounds from 6.735 billion in January and from 2024’s 6.724 billion on recent trade data and increased global export competition.
Turkey production also was lowered to 4.970 billion pounds from 5.100 billion in January and 2024’s 5.121 billion on HPAI-related culling and the latest hatchery data.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $206.87 per cwt to $209.32, compared with last week’s range of $204.48 to $210.94 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $326.32 per cwt to $327.97, compared with $320.86 to $336.40.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $1.04 per cwt at $322.46 while select was off $1.71 at $312.21. The choice/select spread widened to $10.25 from $9.58 with 142 loads of fabricated product and 22 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $368.47 per cwt, and 50% beef was $99.61.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.17 to $1.30 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.84, down $0.07 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $275.85 per cwt, up $0.09. This compares with Tuesday’s Mar contract settlement of $264.77, down $3.35.