The USDA’s total red meat and poultry production estimate for 2026 was raised in Tuesday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on higher broiler production forecasts more than offsetting lower beef and turkey production expectations.
BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER
Beef production this year was forecast lower on the slower-than-expected pace of slaughter through early March, partially offset by heavier dressed weights. The latest estimate was for production of 25.810 million pounds, down 110,000, or 0.42%, from 25.920 million in the February report and down 191,000 pounds, or 0.73%, from 2025 production of 26.001 million pounds.
The beef export forecast for 2026 was lowered 30,000 pounds, or 1.24%, to 2.395 million pounds from 2.425 million a month ago for the first half of the year on reduced production. The new estimate also was down 182,000 pounds, or 7.06%, from the 2025 total of 2.577 million pounds.
The beef import estimate was raised 100,000 pounds, or 1.79%, to 5.675 million pounds from 5.575 million last month on tighter beef supplies attracting additional shipments from global exporters. The new estimate also was up 204,000 pounds, or 3.73%, from the 2025 total of 5.471 million pounds.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UNCHANGED
The pork production estimate for 2026 was left unchanged from last month’s report at 28.275 million pounds, which was up 698,000, or 2.53%, from 2025’s production of 27.577 million pounds.
The USDA is scheduled to release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 26, providing an indication of hog supplies for slaughter for 2026.
2026 pork exports were raised 50,000 pounds, or 0.70%, to 7.185 million pounds from 7.135 million last month on stronger demand, particularly to East Asia and Western Hemisphere markets. This was up 215,000 pounds, or 3.08%, from 6.970 million last year.
The 2026 pork import estimate was left unchanged at 1.145 million pounds.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The USDA’s 2026 broiler production estimate was raised to 48.700 million pounds from 48.500 million last month, a gain of 200,000 pounds, or 0.41%, based on recent slaughter and hatchery reports. This was up 694,000 pounds, or 1.45%, from 48.006 million pounds last year.
The broiler export forecast was unchanged from February at 6.670 million pounds, which was down from 2025’s 6.672 million.
Turkey production this year was seen lower for the second half of the year, bringing the annual total to 4.930 million pounds, down 35,000, or 0.70%, from February’s 4.965 million, based on the latest hatchery data and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza-related culling reported through early March.
The turkey export forecast was unchanged at 400,000 pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $240.56 per cwt to $244.00, compared with last week’s range of $240.00 to $249.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $379.67 per cwt to $381.80, compared with $382.75 to $389.66.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $3.38 per cwt at $394.67 while select was up $3.15 at $386.77. The choice/select spread widened to $7.90 from $7.67 with 80 loads of fabricated product and 14 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $429.99 per cwt, and 50% beef was $172.44.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were $0.90 to $1.05 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.52 1/4, down $0.01 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $365.77 per cwt, down $0.62. This compares with Tuesday’s Mar contract settlement of $353.35, up $2.70.