The USDA’s 2024 US red meat and poultry production forecast was raised from last month, according to the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
Beef production was seen as nearly steady with the May estimate, while pork and poultry production estimates were raised.
For 2025, the red meat and poultry production forecast was raised on higher expected beef production.
BEEF PRODUCTION
The latest estimate for 2024 beef production was virtually unchanged for the year with largely offsetting changes in the quarters as lower expected slaughter is largely offset by higher dressed weights. The new estimate was for 26.590 billion pounds of production down 5.0 million, or 0.02%, from 26.595 billion in the May estimate. This is down 377.0 million, or 1.40%, from 2023’s production of 26.967 billion pounds.
The 2025 beef production forecast was raised 245.0 million pounds, or 0.98%, to 25.365 billion pounds from 25.120 billion a month ago on higher expected placements in the fourth quarter of 2024 and a faster expected pace of marketings during the first half. In addition, dressed weights were expected to remain relatively high into 2025. The new estimate would be down from the latest 2024 estimate by 1.225 billion pounds, or 4.61%.
No changes were made to beef trade forecasts for 2024 or 2025. The 2024 beef import forecast was 4.171 billion pounds, and the export forecast held at 2.818 billion. The 2025 beef import forecast was 4.225 billion pounds while the export forecast was 2.500 billion.
PORK PRODUCTION
The USDA’s 2024 pork production estimate was raised to 28.104 billion pounds from May’s 28.064 billion, a gain of 40.0 million pounds, or 0.14%, on a more rapid pace of slaughter and slightly higher dressed weights. This would be up from 2023’s production of 27.302 billion pounds by 802.0 million pounds, or 2.94%.
The 2025 pork production estimate was unchanged at 28.400 billion pounds, which would be up from the latest 2024 estimate by 296.0 million pounds, or 1.05%.
Pork export forecasts for 2024 were raised to 7.362 billion pounds from May’s estimate of 7.262 billion on recent demand strength. 2024 pork imports were estimated at 1.213 billion pounds from 1.203 billion a month ago.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION
The 2024 broiler production estimate was raised to 46.865 billion pounds from 46.805 billion in May and 2023’s 46.387 billion on higher bird weights and recent hatchery data.
Broiler export forecasts were lowered to 6.734 billion pounds for 2024 and to 6.875 billion for 2025 based on recent trade data and expectations of relatively uncompetitive prices from other exporters.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $185.00 per cwt to $190.17, compared with last week’s range of $186.00 to $191.52 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $291.89 per cwt to $297.04, compared with $291.58 to $299.90.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $0.71 per cwt at $318.31 while select was up $0.32 at $299.25. The choice/select spread widened to $19.06 from $18.67 with 106 loads of fabricated product and 23 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $357.19 per cwt, and 50% beef was $76.28.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.46 to $1.56 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.58 1/2 a bushel, up $0.04 1/4.
No delivery intentions were posted Thursday for the Jun live cattle futures contract.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $255.86 per cwt, up $1.09. This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $257.47, down $0.10.