The USDA raised its estimates of US red meat and poultry production for 2023 from last month because of higher beef, pork and broiler production in the fourth quarter, the agency reported in its monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday.
BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
For 2023, the beef production forecast was 26.967 million pounds, up 35,000, or 0.13%, from December’s estimate of 26.932 million. However, it was down 1.324 million pounds, or 4.68%, from 2022’s final tally of 28.291 million pounds.
For 2024, the beef forecast was raised to 26.110 million pounds, up 120,000 pounds, or 0.46%, from December’s 25.990 million with higher expected first-half cattle slaughter, as well as higher dressed weights. This would be down 857,000 pounds, or 3.18%, from the 2023 estimate.
USDA’s Cattle report, scheduled for release Jan. 31, will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2024 as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers for addition to the breeding herd, the report said.
The beef export estimate for 2023 was lowered to 3.015 million pounds, down 15,000, or 0.50%, from December’s estimate of 3.030 million, but it would be down 529,000 pounds, or 14.9%, from 2022’s 3.544 million pounds.
The 2023 import estimate was raised 45,000 pounds, or 1.23%, to 3.708 million pounds from 3.663 million on recent trade data. This would be up 318,000 pounds, or 9.38%, from 2022’s 3.390 million pounds.
For 2024, the beef import estimate was raised 70,000 pounds, or 1.89%, to 3.770 million pounds from 3.700 million largely on higher expected imports from Oceania. The export forecast was lowered to 2.785 million pounds from 2.845 million on weaker sales to a number of markets in Asia, a dip of 60,000 pounds, or 2.11%.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP
The 2023 pork production estimate was 27.302 million pounds, up 60,000, or 0.22%, from the December estimate of 27.242 million and up 306 million, or 1.13%, from 2022’s 26.996 million.
For 2024, pork production was estimated at 27.970 million pounds, up 240,000, or 0.87%. from the December estimate of 27.730 million and up 668 million, or 2.45%, from the 2023 estimate.
The first-half 2024 pork production estimate was raised from last month, reflecting pig crop data for the second half of 2023, the WASDE report said. Production in the second half reflects first-half 2024 farrowing intentions reported in the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report and expectations of somewhat slower-than-recent growth in the pigs per litter rate.
Pork imports for 2023 were unchanged at 1.169 million pounds, but exports were raised to 6.769 million from 6.749 million. For 2024, pork imports were unchanged at 1.215 million pounds, and exports were raised slightly to 6.870 million.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $173.00 per cwt to $176.63, compared with the previous week’s range of $172.00 to $175.59 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $270.02 per cwt to $279.69, compared with $269.19 to $274.88.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $3.37 per cwt at $289.26 while select was up $1.91 at $271.85. The choice/select spread widened to $17.41 from $15.95 with 96 loads of fabricated product and 30 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.25 to $1.35 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.47 a bushel, down $0.10 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $228.00 per cwt, up $0.25. This compares with Friday’s Jan contract settlement of $226.57, up $0.30.