The total 2022 US red meat and poultry production forecast from the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board was raised from last month as higher beef and pork production estimates more than offset a lower poultry production outlook.
The latest estimates came in this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Production forecasts for 2023 beef, pork, broiler meat and turkey meat were unchanged from last month.
BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
The 2022 beef production estimate was raised 65 million pounds, or 0.233%, to 27.907 billion pounds from 27.842 billion last month with higher expected steer, heifer and cow slaughter more than offsetting lower expected carcass weights, the report said. This estimate, however, was down 41 million pounds, or 0.15%, from 2021’s 27.948 billion pounds.
The 2023 beef production forecast was left unchanged from last month at 24.950 billion pounds down from the latest 2022 forecast by 1.957 billion pounds, or 7.01%.
For 2022, expectations for beef exports were raised 65 million pounds, or 1.94%, to 3.421 billion pounds from 3.356 billion last month, reflecting stronger sales to several markets in Asia. However, the new 2022 export estimate was down from 2021’s 3.447-billion-pound total by 26 million pounds, or 0.75%.
The strength in demand was expected to carry into early 2023 where the export estimate was raised to 2.940 billion pounds from 2.930 billion last month.
For 2022, the import projection for beef was lowered to 3.515 billion pounds from 3.545 billion, a decline of 30 million pounds, or 0.85%.
PORK PRODUCTION EXPECTED HIGHER
This year’s pork production forecast was raised for the second quarter on the current pace of slaughter, although expected carcass weights were reduced slightly, the WASDE report said. No changes were made to the outlying quarters.
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, scheduled to be released on June 29, will provide indications of supplies of hogs for slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early 2023, the report said.
Stronger demand in several key markets support anticipated higher pork exports for 2022. The new pork export demand estimate was 6.621 billion pounds, up 40 million, or 0.61%, from 6.581 billion last month but down 409 million, or 5.82%, from last year’s 7.030 billion.
The report left 2023 export forecasts unchanged at 6.510 billion pounds.
LOWER CHICKEN PRODUCTION SEEN
The 2022 broiler production estimate was reduced on the pace of slaughter and recent hatchery data.
Stronger demand in several key markets supported higher estimates for chicken meat exports this year, although predictions for next year were unchanged.
Reduced 2022 turkey production was expected on the current pace of slaughter.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $135.00 to $143.15 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $134.15 to $142.43. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $213.01 to $217.29 per cwt, versus $212.70 to $218.64.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $1.22 per cwt at $268.22, while select was down $1.14 at $245.68. The choice/select spread narrowed to $22.54 from $22.62 with 115 loads of fabricated product and 19 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported that basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.90 to $2.00 a bushel over the Jul futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at even the Jul, which settled at $7.74 a bushel, up $0.05 3/4.
No live cattle delivery intentions were posted Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $160.08 per cwt down $0.10. This compares with Wednesday’s Aug contract settlement of $173.27, up $1.97.