The USDA’s estimate of total US red meat and poultry production for 2025 was forecast lower than last month Friday, with lower beef and turkey production forecasts more than offsetting higher pork and broiler production estimates.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
The 2025 beef production estimate was lowered to 26.188 million pounds from 26.358 million last month on a slower pace of slaughter and reduced dressed weights. This also is down from 2024’s 26.984 million pounds.
For 2026, the beef production forecast was raised to 25.815 million pounds from 25.275 million last month. Higher feedlot placements were expected during the second half of 2025, as strong demand for beef supports feeder cattle prices.
The 2026 forecast assumes cattle imports from Mexico remain banned for the duration of the forecast period because of the presence of New World Screwworm.
Beef import forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were raised from last month on recent trade data, with the increased pace of imports expected to continue through the end of 2026. The new 2025 estimate was 5.377 million pounds, versus 5.187 million last month and 4.635 million in 2024. The 2026 estimate was 5,350 million pounds, versus 5.025 million last month.
Beef export estimates for 2025 were raised from June to 2.728 million pounds from 2.708 million last month on recent trade data but were down from 2024’s 3.007 million pounds. Beef export forecasts for 2026 also were raised on higher production estimates.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The pork production estimate for 2025 was raised to 28.041 million pounds from 27.996 million last month and 27.789 million last year as lower production in the second quarter of the year is expected to more than offset higher expected dressed weights and slaughter in the second half. This was based on recent pig crops reported in NASS’s June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.
The pork production forecast for 2026 was raised, as higher expected pig crops during the second half of 2025 were expected to result in higher slaughter in the first half of 2026.
Pork export estimates for 2025 were raised on higher expected shipments during the second half of the year. The 2026 pork export forecast was left unchanged.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2025 broiler production estimate was raised for the second and third quarters on ideas of higher weights.
Turkey production for the year was lowered primarily on recent production and hatchery data.
Broiler and turkey production forecasts were left unchanged for 2026.
Broiler export forecasts were reduced for 2025 and 2026 on ideas of international competition from exporters in key markets. No changes were made to export forecasts for turkey in 2025 or 2026.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $224.82 per cwt to $233.02, compared with the previous week’s range of $225.63 to $236.67 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $354.61 per cwt to $365.41, compared with $353.56 to $365.67.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $6.02 per cwt at $378.64 while select was off $4.37 at $366.49. The choice/select spread narrowed to $12.16 from $13.80 with 113 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $415.91 per cwt, and 50% beef was $258.21.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.30 to $1.45 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $3.96, down $0.03 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $323.37 per cwt, up $1.53. This compares with Friday’s Aug contract settlement of $325.32, up $4.05.