While Friday’s monthly USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report predicted lower 2022/23 corn ending stocks and a higher 2021/22 ending stocks, it also called for 2022 red meat and poultry production to be fractionally higher than last month.
The report said higher 2022 beef and broiler forecasts were offset partially by lower pork and turkey output.
For 2023, the red meat and poultry production forecast was raised on higher beef production expectations.
H2 BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
Second-half 2022 beef production was forecast to be higher than last month’s projection as slaughter was predicted to be up. Annual 2022 beef production was seen in the latest report to be 27.990 billion pounds up 68 million, or 0.24%, from 27.922 billion in July. This also would be up from 2021’s 27.948 billion pounds by 42 million, or 0.15%.
For 2023, beef production was projected in Friday’s report to be 26.265 billion pounds, up 675 million, or 2.51%, from July’s forecast of 26.940 billion but down 1.725 billion, or 6.16%, from 2022’s 27.990 billion.
US beef exports for 2022 were projected to be 3.561 billion pounds, up 65 million, or 1.86%, from 3.496 billion a month ago and up 120 million, or 3.49%, from 2021’s 3.441 billion.
For 2023, beef exports were forecast at 3.020 billion pounds, up 40 million, or 1.34%, from 2.980 billion a month ago but down 541 million, or 15.2%, from the 2022 forecast of 3.561 billion.
This year’s beef imports were forecast at 3.459 billion pounds, down 56 million, or 1.59%, from July’s estimate of 3.515 billion but up 113 million, or 3.38%, from 2021’s 3.346 billion. Next year, beef imports were expected to total 3.200 billion pounds, unchanged from July but down from the 2022 estimate by 259 million, or 7.49%.
Q3 PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
This year’s annual pork production was estimated at 27.078 billion pounds, down 81 million, or 0.30%, from the July estimate of 27.159 billion and down from 2021’s production of 27.675 billion by 597 million, or 2.16%.
For 2023, pork production was estimated to total 27.520 billion pounds, unchanged from a month ago but up from this year’s 27.078 billion by 442 million, or 1.63%.
The report pegged 2022 pork exports at 6.574 billion pounds, down 2 million, or 0.03%, from 6.576 billion a month ago and down 452 million, or 6.43%, from 2021’s 7.026 billion. 2023 pork exports were left unchanged at 6.515 billion pounds, down from this year by 59 million, or 0.91%.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $136.12 to $144.00 per cwt, compared with the previous week’s range of $135.00 to $142.13. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $212.48 to $217.64 per cwt, versus $212.71 to $217.25.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $0.27 per cwt at $263.37 while select was up $2.13 at $239.59. The choice/select spread narrowed to $23.78 from $25.64 with 62 loads of fabricated product and 28 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were steady at $2.60 to $2.70 a bushel over the Sep futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.10 over Sep, which settled at $6.39 3/4, up $0.10 1/2.
Two steer contracts were retendered for delivery against the Aug live cattle contract Friday at one then demanded at one.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $178 28 per cwt up $0.22. This compares with Friday’s Aug contract settlement of $179.62, down $0.32.