Total US red meat and poultry production for 2024 was forecast by the USDA to be 1% less than 2023, as lower beef and fractionally lower pork production offset higher poultry production.
Total red meat and poultry production forecasts for 2023 were raised from last month. Higher 2023 beef, pork and broiler production estimates more than offset a forecast reduction in turkey.
For 2023, beef, pork and broiler exports were raised largely on recent trade data.
Predictions came from the USDA’s monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday.
2024 BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER
2024 beef production was forecast at 24.745 billion pounds, down from the 2023 estimate of 26.921 billion with expected declines in fed and non-fed cattle supplies, the USDA said.
The 2023 beef production estimate was raised to 26.921` billion pounds from last month’s estimate of 26.775 billion on recent slaughter data and larger-than-previously forecast first-half placements, supporting higher slaughter of steers and heifers in the second half.
The cow slaughter for this year was raised as well, because forage supplies remain tight despite some improvements in pasture conditions.
For 2024, beef export estimates were down to 2.950 billion pounds from 2023’s 3.224 billion, on lower production. Beef imports were projected higher at 3.560 billion pounds from 2023’s 3.501 billion on tight domestic supplies.
LOWER 2024 PORK PRODUCTION FORECAST
Pork production in 2024 was forecast slightly lower at 27.350 billion pounds from 2023’s 27.381 billion. Weaker expected farrowings in second-half 2023 were expected to constrain production growth in the first part of 2024, but higher hog prices and lower expected feed prices during 2023/24 were expected to stimulate a modest increase in 2024 farrowings, supporting higher production in the latter part of the year.
2023 pork production estimates were raised slightly to 27.381 billion pounds from April’s estimate of 27.360 billion on recent production data.
Pork import forecasts this year were slightly higher at 1.069 billion pounds, while exports were lower at 6.503 billion, with offsetting gains in several markets.
2024 CHICKEN PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
Higher forecast 2024 broiler production, at 47.820 billion pounds from 2023’s 47.048 billion, reflected declining feed costs and tight supplies of alternative meat proteins.
Turkey production next year was projected higher as the sector continues to recover from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza.
Based on recent slaughter and hatchery data, 2023 broiler production was estimated lower for the second quarter, but raised for the second half of the year as feed prices were expected to decline as second-half prices remain steady.
Turkey production this year was forecast lower on recent hatchery data.
Broiler and turkey exports were forecast higher on increased production.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $171.00 per cwt to $179.10, compared with the previous week’s range of $167.24 to $183.37 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $271.48 per cwt to $278.17, compared with $272.57 to $282.43.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $1.11 per cwt at $304.61 while select was up $0.10 at $284.68. The choice/select spread narrowed to $19.93 from $21.14 with 91 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.73 to $1.85 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $5.86 1/4 a bushel, up $0.04.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $200.58 per cwt, up $0.61. This compares with Friday’s May contract settlement of $205.47 per cwt, up $1.35.