The USDA’s outlook for 2023 global meat trade is mixed, said the USDA’s Livestock and Poultry World Markets and Trade report this week.
Only chicken meat was forecast to make gains while beef was virtually unchanged and pork fell for the second straight year.
BRAZIL GAINS
Brazil exports of beef, pork and chicken meat all were forecast to make significant gains and outperform other major traders in 2023. Brazil’s beef exports were forecast higher on tighter exportable supplies from its major competitors, Argentina and Uruguay, which will support growing shipments to China.
Brazil’s pork exports were forecast higher on price competitiveness and increased opportunities in China, Chile and Japan as these markets reduce imports from the EU.
Brazil’s chicken meat exports were forecast to rise because of its role as a supplier of a wide range of products to an array of markets. Brazil exportable supplies will be buoyed by moderately lower feed prices.
BEEF AND VEAL
Global beef and veal production was forecast to be virtually unchanged in 2023 at 59.1 million tonnes as falling US production offsets increases in Australia, Brazil, China and India.
Outside the US, beef production was forecast to increase 1% as elevated global beef prices induce more slaughter.
Greater feed availability and improved pastures in Australia were expected to support heavier carcass weights, boosting production by 10%.
Brazil production was forecast to increase 2% as packers slaughter more cattle amid lower calf prices and a firmer domestic market.
China production was forecast to be up 3% as the lifting of COVID-related restrictions increases foodservice demand.
Lastly, India production was up 2% on export demand and marginally higher domestic consumption.
PORK
Global 2023 pork production was forecast to be virtually unchanged year over year at 114.3 million tonnes as lower production in the EU, UK and Canada was mostly offset by larger production in the US, Vietnam, Brazil and China.
EU pork production was forecast to be 3% lower year over year to 21.8 million tonnes. EU hog inventories continued to decline in 2022 and were forecast at 131.8 million head in 2023, down 2% year-over-year.
Increasing environmental regulations and weaker producer margins from increased input costs likely will continue to stifle EU pork production.
Vietnam production was forecast to increase 6% to 3.3 million tonnes on industry investments and continuing recovery from the effects of African Swine Fever.
Brazil production was forecast to be 2% larger year over year as domestic demand and export opportunities remained strong because of competitive prices.
China’s production was expected to increase marginally as consumer demand remained robust.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $172.20 per cwt to $179.46, compared with last week’s range of $164.63 to $171.57 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $261.33 per cwt to $271.08, compared with $256.76 to $269.59.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $1.94 per cwt at $300.42 while select was up $1.57 at $283.38. The choice/select spread widened to $17.04 from $16.67 with 73 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.58 to $1.65 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $6.52 1/4 a bushel, down $0.03 3/4.
No live cattle futures deliveries were tendered Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $199.77 per cwt, up $6.53. This compares with Thursday’s Apr contract settlement of $202.667 per cwt, up $0.45.