In its July Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report, the USDA projected higher feeder cattle prices than it did a month ago.
In June, the weighted-average price for feeder steers weighing 750 to 800 pounds at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards was $310.47 per cwt. The Outlook report said this was a $10 increase from May and $47 higher than June 2024.
Prior to the July USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates release, only June 30 sales data was available and it reported a record $319.06 per cwt on a relatively small group of 164 head, the Outlook report said. Accounting for recent price data and continuation of the import ban on Mexican cattle, the 2025 forecast of feeder steer prices at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards was raised by $3.51 to $301.29 per cwt in 2025.
Specifically, 2025 third- and fourth-quarter price forecasts were raised $6 to $312.00 and $314.00 per cwt, respectively, the report said. This increase was carried over into the 2026 feeder steer price forecast, which was $6 higher than last month at $312.25 per cwt.
WHOLESALE BEEF PRICES HIGHER
Comprehensive wholesale boxed beef values and slaughter steer prices soared 21% and 15%, respectively, from week one to week 26 in the first half of 2025, the USDA said. However, boxed beef prices appeared to have peaked in the first week of July, while slaughter steer prices reached their summer peak in mid-June.
Those moves likely portend typical seasonal declines into the second half of 2025, the Outlook report said. The June average price for slaughter steers in the five-area marketing region was $235.35 per cwt, almost $9 more than the record set the prior month and about $42 higher year over year.
For the first week of July, slaughter steer prices averaged $229.43 per cwt, a decline of more than $9 from the record price set the week ending June 15, the Outlook report said. Based on recent price data, the third- and fourth-quarter 2025 slaughter steer price forecasts were not changed from last month at $226 and $229 per cwt, respectively.
The 2026 annual price projection also was not changed from last month, remaining at $228.50 per cwt, the USDA report said.
BEEF EXPORTS TO CHINA DOWN
US beef exports in May totaled 229 million pounds, 11% less than a year ago, the USDA said. Exports to China were only 4 million pounds, the lowest since 2020 when the Phase 1 trade deal paved the way for increased exports to China.
Year-to-date exports to China through May were down 33%, the USDA report said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $231.00 per cwt to $231.22, compared with last week’s range of $229.17 to $241.74 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $361.69 per cwt to $363.05, compared with $350.68 to $378.64.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was down $1.48 per cwt at $372.07 while select was off $1.44 at $350.05. The choice/select spread narrowed to $22.02 from $22.06 with 58 loads of fabricated product and 18 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $415.90 per cwt, and 50% beef was $254.88.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were up $0.15 at $1.45 to $1.60 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $4.03 3/4, down $0.04 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $325.80 per cwt, up $3.52. This compares with Monday’s Aug contract settlement of $327.60, up $3.60.