The USDA Thursday projected per-capita consumption of red meat and poultry to decline next year, led by a pullback in beef, the USDA said in its July Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.
Total per capita consumption of red meat and poultry is projected to decrease by 1.6 pounds to 226.1 pounds in 2025.
“Consumption” actually is a misnomer. The USDA can’t measure how much of anything consumers actually eat or drink. Disappearance is calculated by subtracting exports and ending stocks from total supply, which is the sum of beginning stocks, imports and production.
After subtracting exports, the remainder can be divided by the population to achieve a measure of per capita domestic disappearance, the USDA said.
In 2025, per capita disappearance of beef was projected to fall to 56.3 pounds from 58.2 pounds in 2024, the report said. Per capita pork disappearance was projected to fall slightly in 2025 after increasing to 51 pounds in 2024, the USDA said.
Broilers make up the largest share of meat disappearance per capita, and per capita broiler consumption was projected to increase from 101.3 pounds in 2024 to 102.0 pounds in 2025, the Outlook report said. However, this increase is not enough to completely substitute for losses in beef, pork, and turkey consumption.
HEIFER, COW KILL REMAIN HISTORICALLY HIGH
In other points in the report, the USDA said in the first six months of 2024, the volume of federally inspected heifer and cow slaughter was down by 1% and 14%, respectively. Further, the percentage of heifers and cows in the slaughter mix in terms of the weekly average for January–June over past 20 years, 2024 has declined year over year.
However, 2024 is third-highest in the last 20 years and the eighth-highest since weekly slaughter data began in 1960, the USDA said.
With the cancellation of the July Cattle (Inventory) report, data on producers’ intentions will not be available. However, an update on the number of steers and heifers on feed is scheduled to be published in the July Cattle on Feed report, which could give some indication of whether large numbers of heifers were placed during a period when many breeding decisions typically are made.
FASTER SECOND-HALF PRODUCTION SEEN
The outlook for 2024 beef production was raised from last month by 65 million pounds to 26.655 billion but was 1% less than last year’s estimate. This month’s forecast reflected updates to the second-quarter forecast based on actual slaughter data through June.
Given the pace of second-quarter activity, third-quarter marketings were expected to be slightly faster. However, this largely was offset by fewer cows in the slaughter mix.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $188.00 per cwt to $200.95, compared with last week’s range of $188.36 to $200.93 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $298.88 per cwt to $309.01, compared with $300.74 to $312.62.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $2.01 per cwt at $318.16 while select was up $1.02 at $299.46. The choice/select spread narrowed to $16.69 from $19.72 with 137 loads of fabricated product and 37 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $375.44 per cwt, and 50% beef was $130.22.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.67 to $1.80 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $3.91 1/4 a bushel, down $0.06 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $259.26 per cwt, down $2.06. This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $256.22, down $2.32.