The USDA expected the percentage of annual consumed US red meat imports to show an increase for 2024 and climb to near-record highs in 2025.
In its monthly Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report, the USDA said total red meat imports were influenced heavily by beef imports, which in 2019-2023 were an average 70.5% of total red meat imports, followed by pork at 22.9% and lamb at 6.6%.
“Firm domestic beef demand has contributed to the rising share of beef imports for domestic use as domestic production has declined since peaking in 2022; it is projected to reach a record level in 2025,” the report said. “In 2025, the share of imports to domestic use for beef will reach a record 16.9%, the share for pork will decline to 5.1%, and the share for lamb is expected to remain historically elevated at 72.3%….”
OCTOBER BEEF IMPORTS UP AGAIN
Beef imports rose again in October to 414 million pounds, more than 35% higher than a year ago, the USDA said. Imports were up from last year from all major suppliers except Canada.
Imports from Australia have risen since May and followed a pattern similar to that of 2014, the USDA said. Year-to-date imports from Australia have surpassed imports from Canada, bringing Australia back as the top supplier for the first time since 2016.
Beef imports from Brazil continue strong, despite being subject to a higher out-of-quota tariff rate through the end of the year, the USDA said. During the previous two years, US imports of Brazilian beef tapered late in the year as importers waited for the quota to reopen on Jan. 1.
However, demand for beef trimmings and high US beef prices were enough to offset the extra tariff costs, the USDA said.
October imports from Argentina and Uruguay also were very strong, the USDA said. As of Dec. 9, the quotas for both were 96% and 89% filled, respectively.
Based on increased imports from Oceania and South America, the Q4 2024 beef import forecast was raised 80 million pounds to 1.170 billion, bringing the annual forecast to 4.588 billion pounds, the USDA said. If realized, this would be a 23% increase.
Higher expected imports resulting from decreased domestic beef availability and increased beef imports from Mexico were partially offset by an expectation of decreased demand for lean trimmings due to lower anticipated steer and heifer slaughter.
The annual forecast, therefore, was raised to 4.710 billion pounds, a 3% year-over-year increase
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $192.69 per cwt to $193.12, compared with last week’s range of $191.08 to $193.82 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $301.23 per cwt to $302.72, compared with $297.79 to $304.38.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $0.98 per cwt at $317.37 while select was up $5.71 at $289.57. The choice/select spread narrowed to $27.80 from $32.53 with 74 loads of fabricated product and 30 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $320.45 per cwt, and 50% beef was $83.38.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were down $0.07 to $0.08 at $1.19 to $1.35 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.45, up $0.03.
No delivery intentions were posted for the Dec live cattle contract Monday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $261.73 per cwt, down $0.86. This compares with Monday’s Jan contract settlement of $255.55, down $2.10.