Among the data from the USDA’s Economic Research Service are projections for reduced feed use this year, contributing to forecasts for higher ending stocks than were expected before the last Crop Production report.
Reduced US corn export prospects because of higher production and shipments from other countries and lower expectations for ethanol production were covered in this space Tuesday. Now it’s time to look at feed-use projections through the USDA/ERS’ Feed Outlook.
For the 2018-19 crop year, US feed grain disappearance was projected 5.0 million short tons lower at 384.6 million. Feed and residual use was lowered 1.7 million tons to 139.9 as corn was lowered and sorghum raised.
That resulted in a projected decline in stocks to 384.6 million tons, 6.5 million below last year and total feed ending stocks of 55.7 million.
Feed and residual use for the four major feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley and oats) along with wheat, for 2018-19 was projected at 142.9 tons, 5.5 million below last month. Feed and residual use was raised for sorghum but more than offset by a decline in corn, wheat, and oats. The current projection was ahead of last year by 2.3 million tons, less than last month’s gain.
GRAIN CONSUMING ANIMAL UNITS
What the USDA called grain consuming animal units, basically adult animals only, for 2018/19 were projected at 100.6 million, virtually unchanged from last month and 1.4 million over last year’s revision of 99.2 million.
Feed and residual use per animal unit was projected at 1.42 tons, slightly lower than last month and virtually unchanged from last year.
Hog inventory projections were reduced, leading to most of the change this month.
Historical changes were made for chicken layer inventories.
US projected corn disappearance was lowered 200 million bushels this month to 14,565 million.
Food, seed and industrial use was lowered 50 million bushels to 6,965 million on reduced prospects for ethanol, which was lowered the same amount to 5,500 million bushels.
INTENDED CORN ACREAGE UP
NASS’s Prospective Plantings report indicated a 3.66-million-acre increase in intended corn planted acreage in 2019/20 to 92.8 million.
Relative prices, as well as typical crop rotation cycles, have encouraged producers to switch from soybeans and spring wheat to corn. Weather issues during the winter wheat planting season in some states also contributed to opportunities for corn acreage.
If realized, that would be the largest planted corn acreage since the 2016/17 crop year. Corn area increases were most pronounced in North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Kansas and Illinois, which are expected to add a combined 2.5 million acres relative to a year ago.
US sorghum supply remained unchanged in 2017/18 at 397.348 million bushels. Total use remained constant at 157.346 million bushels.
However, that camouflaged marginal changes in underlying use categories like a reduction in feed and residual use of 0.347 million bushels to 96.943 million and an increase in ethanol production.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cash cattle trading last week was reported at $124 to $128 per cwt on a live basis, steady to up $4 from the previous week, and at $204 to $205 dressed, steady to up $1 from the bulk of the previous week’s trade.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $1.07 per cwt at $232.05, while select was down $0.07 at $221.15. The choice/select spread widened to $10.90 from $9.76 with 111 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
There were no tenders Tuesday for deliveries against the Apr futures contract.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Monday, was $143.46 per cwt, up $0.47. This compares with Tuesday’s Apr contract settlement of $145.67, unchanged.