The USDA’s total US red meat and poultry production forecast for 2023 was reduced from last month as higher beef production estimates are more than offset by lower pork and poultry production, the USDA said in its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2023 beef production estimate was raised 165 million pounds, or 0.61%, to 27.086 billion pounds from 26.921 billion last month with higher expected steer and heifer, cow and bull slaughter expected. This was down 1.205 billion pounds, or 4.26%, from 28.291 billion pounds last year.
The beef production forecast for 2024 was raised to 24.795 billion pounds from 24.745 billion last month on higher expected placements in 2023, a gain of 50 million pounds, or 0.20%.
No changes were made to beef trade for 2023 or 2024, with 2023 exports at 3.224 billion pounds and 2023 imports at 3.501 billion pounds; 2024 exports were 2.950 billion with imports at 3.560 billion.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
The 2023 pork production estimate of 27.376 billion pounds was lowered five million pounds, or 0.02%, from 27.381 billion for the second quarter on a more rapid pace of slaughter but lower carcass weights. No changes were made to the outlying quarters. The new estimate was up 380 million pounds, or 1.41%, from last year’s 26.996 billion pounds.
The pork production forecast for 2024 was left unchanged at 27.350 billion pounds.
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, set to be released on June 29, is expected to provide indications of supplies of hogs for slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early 2024.
Pork export estimates were raised for 2023 and 2024 on demand strength. The new 2023 export forecast was 6.803 billion pounds, up 300 million, or 4,61%, from 6.503 billion, which was up 465 million, or 7.34%, from 2022’s 6.338 billion. The new 2024 import estimate was 1.069 billion pounds, unchanged from last month but down 265 million, or 19.9%, from 1.344 billion last year.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
The 2023 broiler production estimate was reduced 149 million pounds, or 0.32%, to 46.899 billion pounds from 47.048 billion last month on the pace of slaughter and recent hatchery data. This was up 693 million pounds, or 1.50%, from 46.206 billion last year. The chicken production forecast for 2024 was left unchanged at 47.820 billion pounds.
The 2023 turkey production forecast was reduced to 5.383 billion pounds from 5.404 billion last month on recent hatchery data, but this was up from 2022’s 5.222 billion. The 2024 forecast was left unchanged at 5.640 billion pounds.
No change was made to the 2023 broiler export forecast of 7.383 billion pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $180.00 per cwt to $191.90, compared with last week’s range of $177.80 to $188.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $284.05 per cwt to $295.25, compared with $269.90 to $294.94.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $1.07 per cwt at $339.06 while select was down $0.22 at $309.25. The choice/select spread widened to $29.80 from $28.51 with 80 loads of fabricated product and 17 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.65 to $1.75 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $6.07 3/4 a bushel, down $0.04 3/4.
No deliveries were tendered against Jun live cattle Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $228.25 per cwt, up $0.05. This compares with Wednesday’s Aug contract settlement of $235.90 per cwt, down $4.55.