The USDA’s latest forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production was lowered from the previous September report with lower beef, pork and turkey production forecasts partially offset by higher broiler production.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
In its November World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday, the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board said its 2025 beef production estimate was lowered to 25.756 billion pounds from 25.826 billion in September, as expected reduced steer and heifer slaughter and lower weights will be offset partially by higher expected cow and bull slaughter. This would be down from 2024’s 26.984 billion pounds
For 2026, the USDA’s beef production estimate was lowered to 25.390 billion pounds from 25.490 billion in September on expected reduced steer and heifer slaughter, with the slower rate of fed cattle marketings expected to carry into the first half of the new year, the report said.
The beef import forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were left unchanged from the previous report based on US Census data reported through July, the report said. Beef export expectations were reduced in the third quarter of 2025 but remained unchanged for the outlying quarters of 2025 and 2026.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
The 2025 pork production forecast was lowered to 27.487 billion pounds from 27.567 billion in September on a slower pace of slaughter through early November more than offsetting higher dressed weights, the USDA said. This was down from 2024’s 27.789 billion pounds.
Slaughter forecasts also reflected updated 2025 hog inventories and pig crops provided in the Sep. 25 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.
Pork production estimates for 2026 were reduced to 27.475 billion pounds from 28.380 billion on lower expected hog supplies for the year, with reduced farrowing expectations for late-2025 and early 2026 indicated in the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, the WASDE report said.
Pork export forecasts were unchanged for 2025 but were reduced for 2026 on ideas of tighter domestic supplies, the USDA said.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
Broiler production forecasts for the third and fourth quarters of this year were raised based on production data reported through August and daily slaughter data reported through early November, the WASDE report said.
The broiler production estimate for 2026 was raised as the recent increase in slaughter rates was expected to carry into the new year, the report said.
Broiler export forecasts were raised for 2025 on recent data, with higher exports carrying into 2026, the report said.
The 2025 turkey production estimate was lowered on production data reported through August and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza-related culling through early November, the report said.
2026 turkey production was predicted lower for the first and second quarters based on recent HPAI-related culling, the report said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $229.81 per cwt to $237.00, compared with the previous week’s range of $230.08 to $238.48 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $361.70 per cwt to $369.99, compared with $363.43 to $373.39.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $2.84 per cwt at $370.73 while select was down $0.79 at $354.24. The choice/select spread narrowed to $16.49 from $18.54 with 109 loads of fabricated product and 20 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $403.92 per cwt, and 50% beef was $177.52.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.05 to $1.20 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.30 1/4, down $0.11 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $343.73 per cwt, up $1.31. This compares with Friday’s Nov contract settlement of $338.67, up $1.67.