The 2018 world forecast for total meat production was lowered slightly to 102.980 billion pounds from May’s 102,989 billion in the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, but 2019 forecasts were left unchanged at 105.358 billion.
Beef production forecasts for this year were lowered to 27.125 billion pounds from 27.215 billion in May primarily because lighter carcass weights were expected to more than offset higher second-quarter steer, heifer and cow slaughter, the WASDE report said.
The pork production estimate for 2018 was lowered to 25,715 billion pounds from 26.770 billion in May on the current pace of second-quarter slaughter and lower expected commercial slaughter in the third quarter. Slightly heavier expected hog carcass weights in the second and third quarters partially offset expected declines in slaughter.
The USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is to be released June 28 and was expected to provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the rest of this year, the report said.
US BEEF IMPORT FORECAST RAISED
The 2018 US beef import forecast was raised to 3,052 billion pounds from 3.032 billion in the May report on increased shipments from Pacific Rim countries, while beef export forecasts were raised to 3.050 billion pounds from 3.035 billion largely on strong Asian demand reflected in the latest trade data, the USDA said.
No changes were made to 2019 beef trade forecasts leaving imports at 3.140 billion pounds and exports at 3.150 billion.
Fed steer price forecasts for 2018 were lowered slightly from May to a range of $114 to $118 per cwt on a live basis from $114 to $119 on second-quarter price data, but no changes were made to price forecasts for outlying quarters, the report said.
No changes were made to price forecasts for cattle in 2019, leaving them at $113 to $#122 per cwt.
US PORK EXPORTS SEEN HIGHER
The 2018 US pork export forecast was raised in the WASDE report to 5.991 billion pounds from 5.916 billion in May on continued strong shipments to several key markets and expectations of continued pork exports to Mexico, the report said.
US pork export estimates for 2019 were raised to 6.165 billion pounds from 6.125 billion in May on forecasts for strong demand to its key trading partners, the WASDE report said.
Hog price estimates were raised slightly to a range of $44 to $45 per cwt from $43 to $45 last month on second-quarter price data, but, like cattle, no changes were made to the outlying quarters.
For 2019, hog price forecasts were lowered to $42 to $45 per cwt on expectations for weaker demand.
BROILER TRADE FORECAST UNCHANGED
The 2018 broiler trade forecast was left unchanged from the previous month, and no changes were made to the 2019 poultry trade forecasts.
No changes were made to poultry price expectations for 2019.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
No fed cattle sold last Wednesday on the Livestock Exchange Video Auction, versus sales the previous week at $110 per cwt.
Cash cattle traded last week at $114 to mostly $115 per cwt on a live basis, up $3.50 to $4 from the previous week. On a dressed basis, cattle traded at $184 per cwt, up $6 to $7.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was $0.21 per cwt at $224.92, while select was up $0.59 at $203.39. The choice/select spread narrowed to $21.53 from $22.33 with 87 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Monday, was $140.95 per cwt, up $0.34. This compares with Tuesday’s Aug settlement of $145.80, down $0.15.