USDA Ups Total Red Meat, Poultry Production Forecasts

The USDA’s latest forecast for 2023 red meat and poultry production was reduced from last month on lowered beef, pork and broiler forecasts.

The latest estimates came Friday from the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist in the form of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

For 2024, the red meat and poultry production forecast was raised on expected higher beef and turkey production, which more than offset ideas of lower broiler production.

 

BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER

 

The 2023 beef production estimate was lowered 180 million pounds, or 0.66%, to 26.981 billion pounds from 27.161 billion last month on forecasts for lower steer and heifer slaughter and lighter dressed weights, although the cow slaughter estimate was increased.  The 2023 beef production forecast was down 1.31 billion pounds, or 4.64%, from 28.291 billion pounds last year.

The beef production estimate for 2024 was raised to 25.165 billion pounds from 24.700 billion last month, a gain of 465 million pounds, or 1.88%, reflecting higher expected placements in late 2023 and early 2024.  These cattle were expected to be slaughtered during 2024.

Cow slaughter estimates also were raised for the first part of 2024.

Expected 2023 beef imports or 3.512 billion pounds were adjusted down from 27.229 billion to reflect recent trade data but no change was made to forecasts for second-half 2023 or 2024, which were 3.560 billion pounds.

The beef export forecast for 2023 was left unchanged at 3.214 billion pounds, but forecasts for 2024 exports were raised to 2.970 billion from 2.950 billion last month on higher expected supplies of beef.

 

PORK PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER

 

While the new pork production estimate reflected expectations for lighter dressed weights, the slaughter estimate was raised slightly.  2023 pork production was estimated at 27.264 billion pounds, down from 27.371 billion a month ago.

The 2024 pork production estimate was unchanged from last month at 27.335 billion pounds.

2023 pork import and export estimates were adjusted to reflect June data, bringing import estimates to 1.080 billion pounds from 1.074 billion, but no change was made to forecasts for the remainder of 2023 or 2024.

2023 export expectations were 6.926 billion pounds, versus 6.913 billion, while 2024 expectations held at 6.980 billion.

 

CHICKEN PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER

 

The 2023 broiler production estimate was reduced on ideas of lower expected eggs set and continued relatively low hatchability.

Estimated growth in broiler production was slowed with lower prices expected to reduce producer margins.

Broiler export forecasts were reduced for 2023 and 2024 on lower expected production.

2023 turkey export totals were raised on lower expected prices, while the production estimate was raised on slaughter and hatchery data.

 

CATTLE, BEEF RECAP

 

The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $179.44 per cwt to $190.97, compared with the previous week’s range of $174.90 to $189.24 per cwt.  FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $282.49 per cwt to $295.81, compared with $283.11 to $292.33

The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $0.58 per cwt at $302.61 while select was off $0.57 at $277.23.  The choice/select spread widened to $25.38 from $24.23 with 62 loads of fabricated product and 11 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were steady at $1.85 to $2.05 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $4.74 1/2 a bushel, down $0.04 3/4.

No contracts were tendered for delivery against the Aug cattle contract Friday.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $244.52 per cwt, down $0.25.  This compares with Friday’s Aug contract settlement of $247.75 per cwt, down $0.25.