The outlook for global meat trade remained relatively unchanged from the April forecast, the USDA said in its Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report.
Beef and chicken meat exports were not revised significantly while pork was raised about 2% from the last forecast, the report said.
BRAZIL EXPORTS GROWING
However, Brazil continues to make export gains and set new records for beef, pork and chicken meat shipments, the USDA said. Brazil beef export forecasts were revised about 1% higher to 3.1 million tonnes on greater production and firm China demand.
Brazil’s cattle prices declined significantly compared with its main competitors – Uruguay and Argentina – and lower beef prices support shipments to Southeast Asia, South America and Middle East markets, the report said. Brazil chicken meat export forecasts were revised about 2% higher to 4.8 million tonnes on firm shipments to Asia, the Middle East and smaller developing markets.
As of July 12, Brazil remains free of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in commercial operations and does not face restrictions as key competitors do, the USDA said.
Brazil pork export forecasts were revised about 8% higher to 1.5 million tonnes on strong exports to most Asia markets, including particularly robust shipments to China and Hong Kong, the report said. Declining feed prices in Brazil were expected to incentivize production and bolster price competitiveness.
GLOBAL BEEF PRODUCTION REVISED UPWARD
The 2023 global beef production estimate was revised nearly 1% higher from the April forecast to 59.6 million tonnes, the report said. Drought induced more herd liquidation in Argentina, raising its production about 6% from the April forecast.
Similarly, larger feedlot placements and higher cow slaughter were expected to boost US production by about 1% from April, the USDA said. New Zealand production was raised about 3% as male dairy calves now are marketed for beef.
EU production estimate were cut about 1% on lower slaughter and lighter weights because of high input costs.
Global beef exports for 2023 were virtually unchanged from the April forecast at 12.1 million tonnes, the USDA said. Upward revisions in the forecasts for New Zealand, Australia, Argentina and Brazil offset declines in forecasts for Mexico, the UK and the EU.
Firm China demand was expected to attract Brazil and Argentina shipments, the report said. Australia could benefit from rising Japan and South Korea demand.
In addition, robust US demand for processing beef could bolster Australia and New Zealand shipments, the USDA said.
A strengthening peso weakens Mexico’s export outlook, the USDA said.
Waning EU demand hampers UK exports while lower EU production depresses EU shipments, the Outlook report said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $180.09 per cwt to $180.32, compared with last week’s range of $178.00 to $186.59 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $284.48 per cwt to $288.06, compared with $280.56 to $287.07.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $0.84 per cwt at $306.78 while select was off $0.87 at $275.74. The choice/select spread widened to $31.04 from $29.33 with 70 loads of fabricated product and 35 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were up $0.10 to $0.15 at $1.90 to $2.05 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $4.99 1/4 a bushel, down $0.07 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $237.73 per cwt, down $1.63. This compares with Monday’s Aug contract settlement of $249.25 per cwt, up $2.60.