The USDA’s October forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production was raised from September, as a higher beef production estimate more than offset lower pork, broiler and turkey production forecasts.
The latest production outlooks came in Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production was raised on higher beef, pork and broiler production estimates.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2024 beef production estimate was raised to 27.0 million pounds from 26.795 million in September and 26.967 million in 2023 on ideas of higher cattle slaughter and heavier dressed weights for the third and fourth quarters.
The 2025 beef production estimate was raised to 25.925 million pounds from 25.625 million in September on higher steer and heifer slaughter predictions, particularly in the first half of the year, and ideas of heavier weights.
Beef import forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were raised on continued strength in demand and availability of supplies from Oceania and South America.
Beef export forecasts were lowered for 2024 on recent trade data. There was no change to the 2025 beef export forecast.
PORK PRODUCTION EASTIMATE LOWERED
The 2024 pork production estimate was lowered to 27.948 million pounds from 28.053 million in September but was raised from 2023’s 27.302 million on a slower pace of slaughter and lower dressed weights.
The 2025 pork production estimate was raised to 28.515 million pounds from 28.505 million in September as the pig crop and farrowing intentions estimates in the Sep. 26 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report pointed to larger hog supplies, particularly in the first half of the year, which will translate to increased pork production during the year.
The pork export forecast was lowered for 2024 on recent trade data, but the 2025 export forecast was raised on higher US supplies and improved international demand, particularly in the second half of the year.
BROILER PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
The third-quarter broiler production estimate was reduced to 11.900 million pounds based on recent slaughter data. This more than offsets a higher fourth quarter forecast of 12.100 million pounds.
The 2024 turkey production estimate was lowered based on recent production and hatchery data.
The 2025 broiler production estimate was raised because of a higher price outlook.
The broiler export forecast was lowered for 2024 on recent trade data and weaker competitiveness relative to other major exporters. The broiler export forecast for 2025 also was lowered, as increased competition from other major exporters was expected to carry into 2025.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $185.99 per cwt to $188.49, compared with the previous week’s range of $180.03 to $188.29 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $290.85 per cwt to $297.16, compared with $288.63 to $297.87.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $1.27 per cwt at $11.22 while select was down $2.01 at $288.72. The choice/select spread widened to $22.50 from $19.22 with 60 loads of fabricated product and 43 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $350.30 per cwt, and 50% beef was $68.90.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.31 to $1.48 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.15 3/4 a bushel, down $0.02 3/4.
Ten steer delivery intentions were posted Friday for the Oct live cattle contract.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $250.05 per cwt, up $0.53. This compares with Friday’s Oct contract settlement of $249.75, down $0.52.