The USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Monday reduced its forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production from last month.
2024 BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2024 beef production estimate was raised 81,000 pounds, or 0.30%, to 26.736 million pounds from 26.655 million in July on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter, which more than offset lighter dressed weights. However, this was down from 2023’s 26.967 million pounds by 231,000 pounds, or 0.86%.
Beef imports for 2024 were adjusted to 4.188 million pounds, reflecting first-half trade data, as well as higher expected imports for the third and fourth quarters. This was up from last year’s 3.725 million pounds.
The 2024 beef export forecast also was raised to 2.940 million pounds from July’s 2.908 million, reflecting continued strength in global beef demand. This was down from 2023’s 3.038 million pounds.
For 2025, the beef production estimate was lowered to 25.445 million pounds from 25.465 million, reflecting reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter.
Beef import and export forecasts were unchanged for 2025 at 4.225 million and 2.500 million pounds, respectively.
2024 PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE REDUCED
The 2024 pork production estimate was reduced 91,000 pounds, or 0.32%, to 28.048 million pounds from 28.139 million in July, reflecting lower third-quarter slaughter and reduced dressed weights. But it’s up from 2023’s 27.302 million pounds by 746,000 pounds, or 2.73%.
The 2024 pork export forecast was reduced to 7.122 million pounds from 7.247 million in July based on official data through June, as well as expected reduced competitiveness in several key export markets in the second half of the year. The new estimate, however, was up from last year’s 6.824 million pounds.
The 2025 pork production forecast was unchanged from July at 28.550 million pounds.
The pork export forecast for 2025 was reduced to 7.615 million pounds from 7.365 million in July.
2024 CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2024 broiler production estimate was raised for the third and fourth quarters reflecting recent production and hatchery data. The annual production estimate was 46.876 million pounds, compared with 46.780 million in July and 46.387 million last year.
The 2025 broiler production forecast was unchanged from July at 47.500 million pounds.
Expected broiler exports for 2024 were raised to 6.776 million pounds from 6.744 million based on stronger-than-expected exports during the second quarter, which was expected to carry into the third quarter.
There were no changes to 2025 broiler export forecast of 6.875 million pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $188.40 per cwt to $188.45, compared with last week’s range of $186.43 to $197.25 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $301.30 per cwt to $302.43, compared with $295.76 to $308.46.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $0.59 per cwt at $312.71 while select was up $0.56 at $298.59. The choice/select spread widened to $14.12 from $14.09 with 92 loads of fabricated product and 16 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $373.50 per cwt, and 50% beef was $170.03.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.45 to $1.60 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $3.83 1/4 a bushel, up $0.06 1/2.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Monday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $245.57 per cwt, down $4.14. This compares with Monday’s Aug contract settlement of $244.40, down $2.10.