The USDA’s estimate of 2025 red meat and poultry production was raised in Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report as higher pork and beef production were offset partially by lower poultry production.
Changes in the 2025 estimates reflect November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The new 2025 beef production forecast came to 26.000 billion pounds, up 50 million pounds, or 0.19%, from 25.950 billion in the December report. Still, this was down 984 million pounds, or 3.65%, from 2024’s 26.984-billion-pound production.
The 2025 beef export estimate was reduced 19 million pounds, or 0.73%, to 2.568 billion pounds from December’s 2.587 billion. This also was down 439 million pounds, or 14.6%, from 2024’s 3.007 billion.
The estimate of 2025 beef imports went up from December to 5.369 billion pounds, a gain of 25 million pounds, or 0.47%, from 5.344 billion pounds. This also was up 734 million pounds, or 15.8%, from 2024’s 4.635 billion pounds.
For 2026, the beef production estimate was raised 10 million pounds, or 0.04%, to 25.735 billion pounds from December’s 25.725-billion-pound estimate on ideas of heavier dressed weights, the report said. Heavier weights were expected to more than offset reduced fed cattle slaughter in the second-half of the year. The new 2026 estimate would be down from the new 2025 estimate by 265 million pounds, or 1.02%.
The 2026 projection for beef exports was reduced to 2.425 billion pounds from December’s 2.485 billion. This would be down from 2025’s new estimate by 60 million pounds, or 2.41%.
The 2026 beef import projection was raised 75 million pounds, or 1.38%, to 5.525 billion pounds from 5.450 billion in December.
USDA’s Cattle (Inventory) report, which is scheduled for release Jan. 30, will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2026 as well as producer intentions to retain heifers for the breeding herd.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATED RAISED
The pork production estimates for 2025 and 2026 were raised based on data provided in the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. The new 2025 estimate was 27.572 billion pounds, up 110 million pounds, or 0.40%, from December’s 27.462 billion pounds but was down 217 million, or 0.78%, from 2025’s 27.789 billion.
Estimated production during the first half of this year was raised on the higher-than-expected pig crops reported during the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Production forecasts for the second-half of 2026 were raised based on farrowing intentions reported for the first half of 2026 and the expectation of steadily increasing litter rates.
Pork export estimates were lowered for the fourth quarter of 2025 on recent trade data but raised for 2026 on higher domestic production and improved competitiveness in international markets. The new 2025 pork export forecast now is 6.962 billion pounds, down 10 million, or 0.14%, from December’s 6.972 billion and down 163 million, or 2.29%, from 2025’s 7.125 billion.
The 2026 pork export forecast was pegged at 7.085 billion pounds, up 65 million, or 0.93%, from December’s 7.020 billion and up from the new 2025 forecast by123 million, or 1.77%.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
Broiler production for 2025 was placed at 48.046 billion pounds, down 40 million, or 0.08%, from December’s 48.086 billion and down 1.052 billion, or 2.24%, from 2024’s 46.994 billion pounds. But, 2026 chicken production was put at 48.600 billion pounds, up from December’s 48.550 billion on hatchery data.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $233.32 per cwt to $233.91, compared with last week’s range of $228.00 to $236.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $364.43 per cwt to $364.69, compared with $359.10 to $363.90.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $1.48 per cwt at $357.11 while select was up $5.88 at $358.05. The choice/select spread inverted to minus $0.94 from $3.46 with 60 loads of fabricated product and 42 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $402.69 per cwt, and 50% beef was $134.19.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were steady to up $0.05 at $0.95 to $1.10 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.21 1/2, down $0.24 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $368.66 per cwt, up $0.66. This compares with Monday’s Jan contract settlement of $362.05, up $1.32.