The USDA’s November forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production was raised from last month with higher beef, broiler and turkey production forecasts only partially offset by lower pork production.
The new estimates came in Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
Broiler and turkey production forecasts were raised based on production data reported through the third quarter.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2024 beef production estimate was raised to 27.025 million pounds from 27.000 last month and 26.967 million last year, as higher dressed weights and cow slaughter more than offset lower expected steer and heifer slaughter.
For 2025, the beef production forecast was raised to 26.280 million pounds from 25.925 million last month because of heavier expected dressed weights and higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially stemming from greater-than-expected placements during the second half of 2024. But this fell short of the 2024 forecast.
The beef import forecast for 2024, at 4.508 million pounds, was raised from 27.067 million last month on recent trade data and stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter imports from Oceana and South America. Still, this was more than 2023’s 27.034 million pounds.
For 2025, the beef import forecast was raised to 26.347 million pounds from 25.992 million last month based on continued strong demand for processing beef.
The beef export forecast for 2024 was raised to 2.960 million pounds from 2.955 million last month based on reported data through September. This was down from 2023’s 3.038 million pounds. For 2025, the forecast was raised to 2.700 million pounds from 2.600 million last month on relatively higher expected global demand.
PORK PRODUCTION FORECAST LOWERED
The 2024 pork production forecast was lowered to 27.858 million pounds from 27.948 million last month on a slower pace of fourth-quarter slaughter and slightly lighter dressed weights, but remained larger than 2023’s 27.302 million pounds.
The 2025 pork production forecast was lowered to 28.400 million pounds from 28.515 million a month ago because of reduced first-quarter slaughter estimates and lower dressed weight predictions.
The pork export forecast for 2024 was raised slightly to 7.153 million pounds from 7.152 million last month based on reported data through September but still was higher than 2023’s 6.824 million. For 2025, the forecast was lowered to 7.355 million pounds based on reduced pork production forecasts and relatively weaker expected demand in several key markets during the first half of the year.
BROILER PRODUCTION FORECAST RAISED
2024 broiler production was raised to 47.184 million pounds from 47.084 million in October and was up from 2023’s 46.387 million pounds.
Broiler production for 2025 was raised to 47.850 million pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $189.73 per cwt to $197.20, compared with the previous week’s range of $189.82 to $200.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $297.87 per cwt to $302.65, compared with $294.97 to $301.45.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $1.53 per cwt at $307.93 while select was down $0.53 at $279.19. The choice/select spread narrowed to $28.74 from $29.74 with 111 loads of fabricated product and 40 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $345.30 per cwt, and 50% beef was $65.73.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.40 to $1.56 a bushel over the Dec corn contract and unchanged in Kansas at $0.25 over Dec, which settled at $4.31 a bushel, up $0.03 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $249.86 per cwt, down $0.06. This compares with Friday’s Nov contract settlement of $245.42, down $2.22.