Friday’s USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report lowered its total US red meat and poultry production forecast for 2024 slightly from last month with lower forecast broiler and turkey production more than offsetting higher beef and pork.
2024 BEEF PRODUCTION CALLED HIGHER
The beef production estimate for 2024 was raised to 26.655 billion pounds from 26.590 billion last month with higher expected steer and heifer slaughter more than offsetting reduced cow slaughter, the USDA said. However, it’s still less than 2023’s output of 26.967 billion pounds.
The beef import estimate for 2024 was reduced to 4.146 billion pounds from 4.171 billion last month on expected global competition, this was up from 2023’s 3.725 billion pounds. Beef exports were raised to 2.908 billion pounds from 2.818 billion on stronger-than-expected demand in a number of key markets; this was down from 2023’s 3.038 billion pounds.
For 2025, the beef production estimate was raised to 25.465 billion pounds from 25.365 billion last month on higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially offset by lower cow slaughter.
There are no changes to beef trade forecasts for 2025, with imports seen at 4.225 billion pounds and exports at 2.500 billion.
2024 PORK PRODUCTION CALLED HIGHER
The pork production estimate for 2024 was raised to 28.139 billion pounds from 28.104 billion last month based on increased slaughter hog weights for the second half of the year, the USDA said. This compares with 2023’s production of 27.302 billion pounds.
The pork production estimate for 2025 was raised to 28.550 billion pounds from 28.400 billion a month ago reflecting stated producers’ farrowing intentions for the second half of 2024 reported in the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report and expectations of modest growth in the first-half 2025 pig crop.
The pork export forecast was lowered from last month to 7.247 billion pounds from 7.362 billion for 2024 based on recent trade data. This compares with 2023’s 65.824 billion pounds.
The pork export forecast for 2025 was unchanged at 7.615 billion pounds.
2024 CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
The broiler production estimate for 2024 was lowered to 46.780 billion pounds from 46.865 billion last month on slaughter data for the second quarter. This was up from 2023’s production of 46.387 billion pounds.
The broiler production estimate for 2025 was lowered to 47.500 billion pounds from June’s 47.550 billion based on a slower rate of growth in first-quarter production.
The 2024 broiler export forecast was raised slightly to 6.744 billion pounds from 6.734 billion, reflecting recent trade data. No changes are made to the broiler export forecast in 2025 at 6.875 billion pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $188.36 per cwt to $200.93, compared with the previous week’s range of $189.71 to $200.07 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $300.74 per cwt to $312.62, compared with $298.67 to $309.14.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $0.41 per cwt at $322.06 while select was down $1.07 at $302.31. The choice/select spread widened to $19.75 from $18.27 with 83 loads of fabricated product and 19 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $373.19 per cwt, and 50% beef was $120.83.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.62 to $1.78 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $4.02 a bushel, up $0.01 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $261.04 per cwt, down $0.49. This compares with Friday’s Aug contract settlement of $258.65, up $2.50.