WASDE Lowers 2022 Red Meat, Poultry Production Forecast

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service Wednesday lowered its 2022 forecast for total red meat and poultry production from last month, as higher forecasts for beef and turkey production was more than offset by lower projections for pork and broilers.

The predictions came in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.




The 2022 beef production forecast was raised 195 million pounds, or 0.71%, to 27.57 billion from 27.375 billion the previous month on higher fed and non-fed cattle slaughter estimates.  The 2022 estimate, however, was down 367 million pounds, or 1.31%, from the 2021 total of 27.937 billion.

Beef import and export forecasts were raised from last month based on recent trade data.  The new 2022 beef import forecast was 3.420 billion pounds, up 50 million, or 1.48%, from 3.370 billion last month and up 72 million, or 2.15%, from 3.348 billion last year.

Beef exports this year were estimated at 3.300 billion pounds, up 30 million, or 0.92%, from 3.270 billion last month but down 147 million, or 4.26%, from 3.447 billion last year.




The 2022 pork production forecast was lowered 65 million pounds, or 0.24%, to 27.315 billion from 27.380 in February on a slower expected pace of slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights.  The new 2022 estimate also was down 358 million pounds, or 1.29%, from 2021’s 27.673 billion.

Pork import expectations were raised to 1.385 billion pounds from 1.310 billion last month, a gain of 75 million pounds, or 5.73%, on strong domestic prices.  Import expectations, however, were down 205 million pounds, or 17.4%, from last year’s 1.180 billion.

Pork export estimates for 2022 were reduced 80 million, or 1.17%, to 6.730 billion from 6.810 billion on increased competition in several Asian markets.  The new export estimate also was down 300 million pounds, or 4.27%, from 7.030 billion last year.




Broiler production estimates were lowered 260 million pounds, or 0.57%, to 45.225 billion from 45.485 billion last month on lower slaughter to date and a slower-than-expected recovery in hatchability.  However, the new estimate was up from 2021’s 44.898 billion pounds by 327 million, or 0.73%.

The broiler export forecast was reduced 70 million pounds, or 0.95%, to 7.305 billion pounds from 7.375 billion last month as higher prices reduce export opportunities.  Exports also were seen declining 62 million pounds, or 0.84%, from 7.367 billion last year.

Turkey production forecasts were raised to 5.620 billion pounds, up 5 million pounds, or 0.09%, from 5.615 billion last month on early year hatchery data.




The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $141.55 to $142.49 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $140.92 to $145.00.  FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $221.70 to $224.78 per cwt, versus $221.90 to $225.95.

The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $0.26 per cwt at $252.70, while select was down $0.15 at $244.79.  The choice/select spread widened to $7.91 from $7.50 with 121 loads of fabricated product and 48 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA reported that basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.25 to $1.35 a bushel over the May futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at $0.15 over May, which settled at $7.33, down $0.20.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $153.89 per cwt down $0.22.  This compares with Wednesday’s Mar contract settlement of $154.05 per cwt, up $0.02.